River Financial Stock Volatility

RVRF Stock  USD 40.00  0.00  0.00%   
River Financial appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. River Financial maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.19, which implies the firm had a 0.19 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found eighteen technical indicators for River Financial, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please evaluate River Financial's Coefficient Of Variation of 445.51, variance of 2.1, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1679 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.

Sharpe Ratio = 0.1926

High ReturnsBest Equity
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Small ReturnsRVRF
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Based on monthly moving average River Financial is performing at about 15% of its full potential. If added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of River Financial by adding it to a well-diversified portfolio.
Key indicators related to River Financial's volatility include:
90 Days Market Risk
Chance Of Distress
90 Days Economic Sensitivity
River Financial Pink Sheet volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of River daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use River's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of River Financial volatility.
  
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as River Financial can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game as hey may decide to buy additional stocks of River Financial at lower prices to lower their average cost per share. Similarly, when the prices of River Financial's stock rise, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Main indicators related to River Financial's market risk premium analysis include:
Beta
(0.34)
Alpha
0.33
Risk
1.37
Sharpe Ratio
0.19
Expected Return
0.26

Moving together with River Pink Sheet

  0.74MFG Mizuho Financial Earnings Call This WeekPairCorr
  0.87PNC PNC Financial ServicesPairCorr
  0.66MUFG Mitsubishi UFJ FinancialPairCorr
  0.68WF Woori Financial GroupPairCorr
  0.88JNJ Johnson Johnson Sell-off TrendPairCorr
  0.79DD Dupont De NemoursPairCorr
  0.64CSCO Cisco Systems Sell-off TrendPairCorr
  0.61PFE Pfizer Inc Earnings Call This WeekPairCorr

Moving against River Pink Sheet

  0.78VFSWW VinFast AutoPairCorr
  0.57HDB HDFC Bank LimitedPairCorr
  0.4IBN ICICI Bank LimitedPairCorr

River Financial Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

River Financial's beta coefficient measures the volatility of River pink sheet compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents River pink sheet's returns against your selected market. In other words, River Financial's beta of -0.34 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk River Financial pink sheet can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. River Financial exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 5.06 and kurtosis of 27.25. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure River Financial's pink sheet risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact River Financial's pink sheet price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
Check current 90 days River Financial correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)
α0.33   β-0.34
3 Months Beta |Analyze River Financial Demand Trend
Check current 90 days River Financial correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)

River Financial Volatility and Downside Risk

River standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

River Financial Pink Sheet Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which River Financial pink sheet price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with River Financial's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of River Financial's pink sheet to predict their future moves. A pink sheet that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A pink sheet with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile pink sheet is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of River Financial's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of pink sheet volatility measures River Financial's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict River Financial's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the pink sheet.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for River Financial's current market price. This means that the pink sheet will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on River Financial's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. River Financial Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.

River Financial Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days River Financial has a beta of -0.3442 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding River Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, River Financial is likely to outperform the market.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to River Financial or Financial Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that River Financial's price will be affected by overall pink sheet market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a River pink sheet's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
River Financial has an alpha of 0.3326, implying that it can generate a 0.33 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
River Financial's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how river pink sheet's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a River Financial Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a pink sheet's market volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

River Financial Pink Sheet Risk Measures

Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of River Financial is 519.22. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 1.86 and standard deviation of 1.37. The mean deviation of River Financial is currently at 0.5. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.73
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.33
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.34
σ
Overall volatility
1.37
Ir
Information ratio 0.18

River Financial Pink Sheet Return Volatility

River Financial historical daily return volatility represents how much of River Financial pink sheet's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 1.3654% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7474% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance 
       Timeline  

Related Correlations Analysis


Correlation Matchups

Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.

High positive correlations

MFGIBFCC
ALPIBBFCC
BFCCCSHX
MFGICSHX
ALPIBMFGI
ALPIBCSHX
  

High negative correlations

MBLUMSBC
ALPIBMSBC
TRUXMSBC

Risk-Adjusted Indicators

There is a big difference between River Pink Sheet performing well and River Financial Company doing well as a business compared to the competition. There are so many exceptions to the norm that investors cannot definitively determine what's good or bad unless they analyze River Financial's multiple risk-adjusted performance indicators across the competitive landscape. These indicators are quantitative in nature and help investors forecast volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across various positions.
Mean DeviationJensen AlphaSortino RatioTreynor RatioSemi DeviationExpected ShortfallPotential UpsideValue @RiskMaximum Drawdown
FFBB  0.50  0.06  0.02  0.57  0.48 
 1.22 
 3.86 
CSHX  0.47  0.10  0.11  0.29  0.11 
 0.77 
 10.66 
MSBC  0.39  0.01 (0.03)(0.38) 0.62 
 1.06 
 7.21 
NASB  0.70  0.14  0.08 (2.57) 0.63 
 1.36 
 6.41 
BFCC  0.36  0.12  0.09 (1.75) 0.00 
 1.29 
 2.60 
CYFL  0.81  0.05  0.00  1.78  1.06 
 1.60 
 8.01 
MBLU  0.90  0.20  0.05  0.97  1.38 
 3.47 
 14.61 
TRUX  1.00  0.08  0.03  0.44  1.19 
 2.49 
 7.71 
MFGI  0.63  0.27  0.19 (84.52) 0.31 
 1.57 
 4.97 
ALPIB  0.89  0.34  0.27 (3.21) 0.06 
 3.31 
 8.11 

About River Financial Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of River Financial or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of River Financial may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to River's beta indicator, it measures the risk of River Financial and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of River Financial fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
River Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for the River Bank Trust that provides various financial services to businesses, business owners, and professionals in the United States. River Financial Corporation was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Prattville, Alabama. River Financial operates under BanksRegional classification in the United States and is traded on OTC Exchange. It employs 264 people.
River Financial's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on River Pink Sheet over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much River Financial's price varies over time.

3 ways to utilize River Financial's volatility to invest better

Higher River Financial's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of River Financial stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. River Financial stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:
  • Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of River Financial investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
  • Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in River Financial's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
  • Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of River Financial's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Remember it's essential to remember that stock volatility is just one of many factors to consider when making investment decisions, and it should be used in conjunction with other fundamental and technical analysis tools.

River Financial Investment Opportunity

River Financial has a volatility of 1.37 and is 1.83 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of River Financial is lower than 12 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use River Financial to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The pink sheet experiences a normal downward fluctuation but is a risky buy. Check odds of River Financial to be traded at $39.6 in 90 days.

Poor diversification

The correlation between River Financial and DJI is 0.62 (i.e., Poor diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding River Financial and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

River Financial Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of River Financial's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in River Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of River Financial pink sheet's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential pink sheets, we recommend comparing similar pink sheets with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

River Financial Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against River Financial as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. River Financial's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, River Financial's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to River Financial.

Complementary Tools for River Pink Sheet analysis

When running River Financial's price analysis, check to measure River Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy River Financial is operating at the current time. Most of River Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of River Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move River Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of River Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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