Universal Music (Austria) Volatility
| UMG Stock | 22.54 0.15 0.67% |
Universal Music Group owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0294, which indicates the firm had a -0.0294% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Universal Music Group exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Universal Music's Variance of 1.65, coefficient of variation of (5,870), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01) to confirm the risk estimate we provide.
Universal |
Universal Music Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Universal daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Universal's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Universal Music volatility.
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Universal Music at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Universal stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower their average cost per share, thereby improving the overall portfolio performance when market normalizes.
Moving together with Universal Stock
Universal Music Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Universal Music's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Universal stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Universal stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Universal Music's beta of 0.0783 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Universal Music stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Universal Music Group exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.15 and kurtosis of 0.1. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Universal Music's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Universal Music's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Universal Music Group Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Universal Music correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Universal Beta |
Universal standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 1.28 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Universal Music's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Universal Music's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in universal stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Universal Music.
Universal Music Group Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Universal Music stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Universal Music's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Universal Music's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Universal Music's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Universal Music's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Universal Music's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Universal Music's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Universal Music's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Universal Music Group Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Universal Music Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Universal Music has a beta of 0.0783 . This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Universal Music average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Universal Music Group will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Universal Music or Music and Video sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Universal Music's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Universal stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Universal Music Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives an Universal Music Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Universal Music Stock Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the coefficient of variation of Universal Music is -3404.11. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 1.64 and standard deviation of 1.28. The mean deviation of Universal Music Group is currently at 0.95. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.77
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Universal Music Stock Return Volatility
Universal Music historical daily return volatility represents how much of Universal Music stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm assumes 1.2814% volatility of returns over the 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7685% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
Universal Music Investment Opportunity
Universal Music Group has a volatility of 1.28 and is 1.66 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 11 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Universal Music. You can use Universal Music Group to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a moderate upward volatility. Check odds of Universal Music to be traded at 24.79 in 90 days.Significant diversification
The correlation between Universal Music Group and DJI is 0.05 (i.e., Significant diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Universal Music Group and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Universal Music Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Universal Music's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal Music's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Universal Music stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.40) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.9621 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (5,870) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.65 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Universal Music Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Universal Music as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Universal Music's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Universal Music's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Universal Music Group.
Complementary Tools for Universal Stock analysis
When running Universal Music's price analysis, check to measure Universal Music's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Music is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Music's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Music's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Music's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Music to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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