PJT Partners Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

0KEC Stock   165.65  4.87  3.03%   
PJT Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of PJT Partners' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of PJT Partners' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of PJT Partners and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from PJT Partners' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PJT Partners, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting PJT Partners' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.077
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.118
Using PJT Partners hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PJT Partners from the perspective of PJT Partners response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PJT Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 176.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 378.75.

PJT Partners after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 165.36  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PJT Partners to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy PJT Stock please use our How to Invest in PJT Partners guide.

PJT Partners Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine PJT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PJT using various technical indicators. When you analyze PJT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through PJT Partners price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

PJT Partners Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of PJT Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 176.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.11, mean absolute percentage error of 56.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 378.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PJT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PJT Partners' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PJT Partners Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PJT Partners  PJT Partners Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

PJT Partners Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PJT Partners' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PJT Partners' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 174.27 and 179.35, respectively. We have considered PJT Partners' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
165.65
174.27
Downside
176.81
Expected Value
179.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PJT Partners stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PJT Partners stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.99
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.1089
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0353
SAESum of the absolute errors378.7532
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as PJT Partners historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for PJT Partners

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PJT Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
162.82165.36167.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
140.66143.20182.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
156.97173.49190.01
Details

PJT Partners After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of PJT Partners at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PJT Partners or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PJT Partners, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

PJT Partners Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting PJT Partners' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PJT Partners' historical news coverage. PJT Partners' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 162.82 and 167.90, respectively. We have considered PJT Partners' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
165.65
162.82
Downside
165.36
After-hype Price
167.90
Upside
PJT Partners is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PJT Partners is based on 3 months time horizon.

PJT Partners Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PJT Partners is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PJT Partners backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PJT Partners, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
2.54
  0.29 
  0.02 
3 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
165.65
165.36
0.18 
17.65  
Notes

PJT Partners Hype Timeline

PJT Partners is presently traded for 165.65on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. PJT is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 165.36. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 17.65%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on PJT Partners is about 262.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 165.67. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PJT Partners to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy PJT Stock please use our How to Invest in PJT Partners guide.

PJT Partners Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to PJT Partners' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PJT Partners' future price movements. Getting to know how PJT Partners' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PJT Partners may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
0LRKVulcan Materials Co(0.76)6 per month 1.37  0.04  2.77 (2.68) 6.49 
0A95Corsair Gaming 0.07 4 per month 0.00 (0.15) 5.01 (4.62) 13.09 
0QZ4Delta Air Lines 0.73 11 per month 1.41  0.17  5.53 (2.80) 10.32 
0LO9AMG Advanced Metallurgical 0.00 0 per month 2.41  0.14  5.23 (3.70) 13.93 
0HGRApplied Industrial Technologies 3.09 6 per month 1.88  0.08  4.13 (2.36) 11.98 
ATMAfriTin Mining 0.60 1 per month 2.96  0.09  7.19 (4.41) 25.05 
MGAMMorgan Advanced Materials 4.00 7 per month 0.85  0.12  2.66 (1.49) 5.99 
SWTSwitch Metals Plc 0.00 4 per month 2.56  0.07  9.09 (5.00) 22.55 

Other Forecasting Options for PJT Partners

For every potential investor in PJT, whether a beginner or expert, PJT Partners' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PJT Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PJT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PJT Partners' price trends.

PJT Partners Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PJT Partners stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PJT Partners could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PJT Partners by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PJT Partners Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PJT Partners stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PJT Partners shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PJT Partners stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PJT Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PJT Partners Risk Indicators

The analysis of PJT Partners' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PJT Partners' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pjt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for PJT Partners

The number of cover stories for PJT Partners depends on current market conditions and PJT Partners' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PJT Partners is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PJT Partners' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for PJT Stock Analysis

When running PJT Partners' price analysis, check to measure PJT Partners' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PJT Partners is operating at the current time. Most of PJT Partners' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PJT Partners' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PJT Partners' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PJT Partners to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.