Coronation Capital Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

0P0000IR6J   57.39  0.41  0.72%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Coronation Capital Plus on the next trading day is expected to be 57.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.42. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Coronation Capital's fund prices and determine the direction of Coronation Capital Plus's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A naive forecasting model for Coronation Capital is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Coronation Capital Plus value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Coronation Capital Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Coronation Capital Plus on the next trading day is expected to be 57.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Coronation Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Coronation Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Coronation Capital Fund Forecast Pattern

Coronation Capital Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Coronation Capital's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Coronation Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.74 and 57.62, respectively. We have considered Coronation Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
57.39
57.18
Expected Value
57.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Coronation Capital fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Coronation Capital fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.0827
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1842
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0033
SAESum of the absolute errors11.4175
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Coronation Capital Plus. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Coronation Capital. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Coronation Capital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coronation Capital Plus. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Coronation Capital

For every potential investor in Coronation, whether a beginner or expert, Coronation Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Coronation Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Coronation. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Coronation Capital's price trends.

Coronation Capital Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Coronation Capital fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Coronation Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Coronation Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Coronation Capital Plus Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Coronation Capital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Coronation Capital's current price.

Coronation Capital Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Coronation Capital fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Coronation Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Coronation Capital fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Coronation Capital Plus entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Coronation Capital Risk Indicators

The analysis of Coronation Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Coronation Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting coronation fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
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