Ascentage Pharma Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AAPG Stock | 27.88 1.39 5.25% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ascentage Pharma Group on the next trading day is expected to be 27.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.49. Ascentage Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ascentage Pharma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Ascentage Pharma Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Ascentage Pharma's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2017-06-30 | Previous Quarter 1.2 B | Current Value 1.7 B | Quarterly Volatility 543.5 M |
Ascentage Pharma Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ascentage Pharma Group on the next trading day is expected to be 27.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 0.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ascentage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ascentage Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ascentage Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ascentage Pharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ascentage Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ascentage Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.03 and 30.95, respectively. We have considered Ascentage Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ascentage Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ascentage Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8343 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6637 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0203 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.4881 |
Predictive Modules for Ascentage Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ascentage Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Ascentage Pharma
For every potential investor in Ascentage, whether a beginner or expert, Ascentage Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ascentage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ascentage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ascentage Pharma's price trends.Ascentage Pharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ascentage Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ascentage Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ascentage Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ascentage Pharma Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ascentage Pharma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ascentage Pharma's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Ascentage Pharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ascentage Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ascentage Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ascentage Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ascentage Pharma Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ascentage Pharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ascentage Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ascentage Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ascentage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.42 | |||
| Variance | 11.69 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascentage Pharma to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ascentage Pharma. If investors know Ascentage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ascentage Pharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.07) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.72) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Ascentage Pharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ascentage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ascentage Pharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ascentage Pharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ascentage Pharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ascentage Pharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ascentage Pharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ascentage Pharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ascentage Pharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.