Ascentage Pharma Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| AAPG Stock | 24.00 0.39 1.65% |
Ascentage Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Ascentage Pharma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 11th of February 2026 the rsi of Ascentage Pharma's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (1.38) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.48) | Wall Street Target Price 45.7143 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.72) |
Using Ascentage Pharma hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ascentage Pharma Group from the perspective of Ascentage Pharma response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Ascentage Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ascentage Pharma Group on the next trading day is expected to be 23.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.08.Ascentage Pharma Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ascentage Pharma's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ascentage. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ascentage can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ascentage Pharma Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ascentage Pharma's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ascentage Pharma.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ascentage Pharma Group on the next trading day is expected to be 23.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.08. Ascentage Pharma after-hype prediction price | USD 24.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Ascentage Pharma Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ascentage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ascentage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ascentage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ascentage Pharma Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ascentage Pharma Group on the next trading day is expected to be 23.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82, mean absolute percentage error of 1.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ascentage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ascentage Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ascentage Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ascentage Pharma | Ascentage Pharma Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Ascentage Pharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ascentage Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ascentage Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.87 and 26.82, respectively. We have considered Ascentage Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ascentage Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ascentage Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0232 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8238 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0294 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.0773 |
Predictive Modules for Ascentage Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ascentage Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ascentage Pharma After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ascentage Pharma at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ascentage Pharma or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ascentage Pharma, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ascentage Pharma Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ascentage Pharma's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ascentage Pharma's historical news coverage. Ascentage Pharma's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.85 and 27.77, respectively. We have considered Ascentage Pharma's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ascentage Pharma is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ascentage Pharma is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ascentage Pharma Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ascentage Pharma is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ascentage Pharma backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ascentage Pharma, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.50 | 3.48 | 0.34 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.00 | 24.31 | 1.29 |
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Ascentage Pharma Hype Timeline
Ascentage Pharma is presently traded for 24.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Ascentage is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 24.31 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 1.29%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.5%. The volatility of related hype on Ascentage Pharma is about 4000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.04. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 980.65 M. Net Loss for the year was (395.25 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 354.93 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascentage Pharma to cross-verify your projections.Ascentage Pharma Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ascentage Pharma's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ascentage Pharma's future price movements. Getting to know how Ascentage Pharma's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ascentage Pharma may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CNTA | Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC | 0.22 | 9 per month | 2.51 | 0.01 | 4.97 | (3.15) | 26.54 | |
| APGE | Apogee Therapeutics Common | 0.89 | 8 per month | 2.81 | 0.07 | 4.97 | (4.24) | 23.21 | |
| CELC | Celcuity LLC | 0.62 | 9 per month | 2.07 | 0.15 | 5.87 | (3.08) | 17.89 | |
| XENE | Xenon Pharmaceuticals | (2.30) | 9 per month | 1.77 | 0.04 | 3.78 | (2.30) | 10.56 | |
| CGON | CG Oncology Common | 0.99 | 9 per month | 2.45 | 0.11 | 5.15 | (4.40) | 34.61 | |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab | (0.19) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.01 | (3.82) | 10.32 | |
| LEGN | Legend Biotech Corp | (0.99) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 3.97 | (6.84) | 19.65 | |
| RARE | Ultragenyx | 1.20 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.73 | (4.09) | 51.23 | |
| IRON | Disc Medicine | (0.57) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.33 | (4.53) | 14.87 | |
| SLNO | Soleno Therapeutics | 1.00 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.40 | (4.91) | 15.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ascentage Pharma
For every potential investor in Ascentage, whether a beginner or expert, Ascentage Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ascentage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ascentage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ascentage Pharma's price trends.Ascentage Pharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ascentage Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ascentage Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ascentage Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ascentage Pharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ascentage Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ascentage Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ascentage Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ascentage Pharma Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ascentage Pharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ascentage Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ascentage Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ascentage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.38 | |||
| Variance | 11.41 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ascentage Pharma
The number of cover stories for Ascentage Pharma depends on current market conditions and Ascentage Pharma's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ascentage Pharma is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ascentage Pharma's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ascentage Pharma Short Properties
Ascentage Pharma's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ascentage Pharma's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ascentage Pharma Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ascentage Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ascentage Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 302.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascentage Pharma to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Can Biotechnology industry sustain growth momentum? Does Ascentage have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ascentage Pharma. If investors know Ascentage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Ascentage Pharma demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Earnings Share (2.09) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.72) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Ascentage Pharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ascentage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ascentage Pharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ascentage Pharma's true underlying value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Because Ascentage Pharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ascentage Pharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Ascentage Pharma's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Ascentage Pharma represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Ascentage Pharma's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.