Arcosa Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| ACA Stock | USD 114.64 1.59 1.41% |
Arcosa Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Arcosa stock prices and determine the direction of Arcosa Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Arcosa's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The value of RSI of Arcosa's share price is at 57. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Arcosa, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Arcosa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arcosa Inc from the perspective of Arcosa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Arcosa Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 114.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.71. Arcosa after-hype prediction price | USD 114.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arcosa to cross-verify your projections. Arcosa Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arcosa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arcosa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arcosa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arcosa Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Arcosa Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 114.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.42, mean absolute percentage error of 3.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.71.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arcosa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arcosa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arcosa Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arcosa | Arcosa Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arcosa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arcosa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arcosa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 113.23 and 116.05, respectively. We have considered Arcosa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arcosa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arcosa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5727 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3533 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4189 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 83.715 |
Predictive Modules for Arcosa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcosa Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcosa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arcosa After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arcosa at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arcosa or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arcosa, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arcosa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arcosa's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arcosa's historical news coverage. Arcosa's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 113.23 and 116.05, respectively. We have considered Arcosa's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arcosa is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arcosa Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arcosa Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arcosa is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arcosa backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arcosa, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
114.64 | 114.64 | 0.00 |
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Arcosa Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Arcosa Inc is traded for 114.64. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.06. Arcosa is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Arcosa is about 471.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 114.70. About 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Arcosa was presently reported as 52.65. The company last dividend was issued on the 15th of January 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arcosa to cross-verify your projections.Arcosa Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arcosa's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arcosa's future price movements. Getting to know how Arcosa's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arcosa may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BZ | Kanzhun Ltd ADR | 0.86 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.74 | (2.95) | 11.69 | |
| NPO | Enpro Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.58 | 0.01 | 3.53 | (3.85) | 9.97 | |
| RAL | Ralliant Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | 0.16 | 3.14 | (2.41) | 8.74 | |
| MSM | MSC Industrial Direct | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.69 | (0.01) | 2.85 | (3.15) | 10.04 | |
| ALK | Alaska Air Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.04 | 0.15 | 4.46 | (2.62) | 11.23 | |
| TREX | Trex Company | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.78 | (2.24) | 31.06 | |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.86 | 11 per month | 0.78 | 0.15 | 2.34 | (1.13) | 5.83 | |
| POWL | Powell Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.83 | 0.07 | 4.45 | (5.25) | 15.35 | |
| ECG | Everus Construction Group | 1.27 | 7 per month | 3.39 | (0.01) | 5.15 | (4.97) | 20.64 | |
| SITE | SiteOne Landscape Supply | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | 0.1 | 4.54 | (1.67) | 8.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arcosa
For every potential investor in Arcosa, whether a beginner or expert, Arcosa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arcosa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arcosa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arcosa's price trends.Arcosa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arcosa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arcosa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arcosa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arcosa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arcosa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arcosa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arcosa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arcosa Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arcosa Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arcosa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arcosa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arcosa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Variance | 2.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arcosa
The number of cover stories for Arcosa depends on current market conditions and Arcosa's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arcosa is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arcosa's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arcosa Short Properties
Arcosa's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arcosa's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arcosa Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arcosa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcosa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 187.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arcosa to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arcosa. If investors know Arcosa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Arcosa assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding Arcosa Inc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Arcosa's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Arcosa's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Arcosa's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Arcosa's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Arcosa represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Arcosa's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.