Ares Commercial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ACRE Stock | USD 4.85 0.01 0.21% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ares Commercial Real on the next trading day is expected to be 4.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.19. Ares Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ares Commercial stock prices and determine the direction of Ares Commercial Real's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ares Commercial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the rsi of Ares Commercial's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 15.981 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.30) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.146 | Wall Street Target Price 4.75 |
Using Ares Commercial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ares Commercial Real from the perspective of Ares Commercial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ares Commercial using Ares Commercial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ares using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ares Commercial's stock price.
Ares Commercial Implied Volatility | 1.3 |
Ares Commercial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ares Commercial Real stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ares Commercial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ares Commercial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ares Commercial's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ares Commercial Real on the next trading day is expected to be 4.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.19. Ares Commercial after-hype prediction price | USD 4.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ares Commercial to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Ares Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ares Commercial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ares Commercial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ares Commercial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ares Commercial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ares Commercial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ares Commercial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ares. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ares Commercial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ares using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ares Commercial Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Ares Commercial's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 90 M | Current Value 84.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 41.3 M |
Ares Commercial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ares Commercial Real on the next trading day is expected to be 4.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ares Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ares Commercial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ares Commercial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ares Commercial | Ares Commercial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ares Commercial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ares Commercial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ares Commercial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.34 and 7.55, respectively. We have considered Ares Commercial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ares Commercial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ares Commercial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9562 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1014 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0209 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.1865 |
Predictive Modules for Ares Commercial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ares Commercial Real. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ares Commercial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ares Commercial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ares Commercial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ares Commercial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ares Commercial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ares Commercial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ares Commercial's historical news coverage. Ares Commercial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.23 and 7.47, respectively. We have considered Ares Commercial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ares Commercial is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ares Commercial Real is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ares Commercial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ares Commercial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ares Commercial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ares Commercial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.60 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 20 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 20 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.85 | 4.85 | 0.00 |
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Ares Commercial Hype Timeline
Ares Commercial Real is presently traded for 4.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Ares is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ares Commercial is about 5333.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.86. About 44.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.51. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ares Commercial Real has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.57. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.14. The firm last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 20 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ares Commercial to cross-verify your projections.Ares Commercial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ares Commercial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ares Commercial's future price movements. Getting to know how Ares Commercial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ares Commercial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MITT | AG Mortgage Investment | 0.07 | 10 per month | 0.87 | 0.18 | 2.80 | (1.66) | 10.23 | |
| NREF | Nexpoint Real Estate | 0.11 | 9 per month | 1.35 | 0.07 | 2.44 | (2.47) | 8.26 | |
| MITN | AG Mortgage Investment | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.38 | (0.07) | 0.51 | (0.39) | 4.69 | |
| REFI | Chicago Atlantic Real | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.35 | (2.12) | 8.13 | |
| AOMR | Angel Oak Mortgage | 0.13 | 19 per month | 1.44 | (0.03) | 1.83 | (2.27) | 6.14 | |
| MDV | Modiv Inc | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.95 | 0.02 | 2.23 | (2.05) | 7.01 | |
| SRG | Seritage Growth Properties | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.37 | (4.17) | 12.77 | |
| ACR | Acres Commercial Realty | 0.07 | 11 per month | 1.56 | (0.01) | 2.95 | (2.88) | 14.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ares Commercial
For every potential investor in Ares, whether a beginner or expert, Ares Commercial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ares Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ares Commercial's price trends.Ares Commercial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ares Commercial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ares Commercial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ares Commercial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ares Commercial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ares Commercial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ares Commercial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ares Commercial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ares Commercial Real entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ares Commercial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ares Commercial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ares Commercial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ares stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Variance | 6.44 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ares Commercial
The number of cover stories for Ares Commercial depends on current market conditions and Ares Commercial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ares Commercial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ares Commercial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ares Commercial Short Properties
Ares Commercial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ares Commercial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ares Commercial Real often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ares Commercial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ares Commercial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 63.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ares Commercial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ares Commercial. If investors know Ares will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ares Commercial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 15.981 | Dividend Share 0.7 | Earnings Share (0.14) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.773 |
The market value of Ares Commercial Real is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ares Commercial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ares Commercial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ares Commercial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ares Commercial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ares Commercial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ares Commercial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ares Commercial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.