Ares Commercial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ACRE Stock | USD 7.12 0.04 0.56% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ares Commercial Real on the next trading day is expected to be 7.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.63. Ares Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ares Commercial stock prices and determine the direction of Ares Commercial Real's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ares Commercial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Ares |
Ares Commercial Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Ares Commercial's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 70.6 M | Current Value 68.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 40.2 M |
Ares Commercial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ares Commercial Real on the next trading day is expected to be 7.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ares Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ares Commercial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ares Commercial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ares Commercial | Ares Commercial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ares Commercial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ares Commercial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ares Commercial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.94 and 9.08, respectively. We have considered Ares Commercial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ares Commercial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ares Commercial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.6445 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1414 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.6255 |
Predictive Modules for Ares Commercial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ares Commercial Real. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Ares Commercial
For every potential investor in Ares, whether a beginner or expert, Ares Commercial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ares Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ares Commercial's price trends.Ares Commercial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ares Commercial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ares Commercial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ares Commercial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ares Commercial Real Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ares Commercial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ares Commercial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Ares Commercial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ares Commercial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ares Commercial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ares Commercial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ares Commercial Real entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ares Commercial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ares Commercial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ares Commercial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ares stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Ares Commercial Real is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ares Commercial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ares Commercial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Ares Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ares Commercial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ares Commercial. If investors know Ares will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ares Commercial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 15.981 | Dividend Share 1.08 | Earnings Share (1.18) | Revenue Per Share 0.725 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.56) |
The market value of Ares Commercial Real is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ares Commercial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ares Commercial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ares Commercial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ares Commercial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ares Commercial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ares Commercial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ares Commercial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.