Aptus Drawdown Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ADME Etf | USD 51.80 0.14 0.27% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aptus Drawdown Managed on the next trading day is expected to be 51.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.91. Aptus Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aptus Drawdown stock prices and determine the direction of Aptus Drawdown Managed's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aptus Drawdown's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength momentum indicator of Aptus Drawdown's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Aptus Drawdown hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aptus Drawdown Managed from the perspective of Aptus Drawdown response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aptus Drawdown Managed on the next trading day is expected to be 51.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.91. Aptus Drawdown after-hype prediction price | USD 51.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptus Drawdown to cross-verify your projections. Aptus Drawdown Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aptus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aptus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aptus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aptus Drawdown Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aptus Drawdown Managed on the next trading day is expected to be 51.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aptus Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aptus Drawdown's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aptus Drawdown Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aptus Drawdown | Aptus Drawdown Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aptus Drawdown Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aptus Drawdown's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aptus Drawdown's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.08 and 52.33, respectively. We have considered Aptus Drawdown's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aptus Drawdown etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aptus Drawdown etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2539 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.31 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.006 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.9071 |
Predictive Modules for Aptus Drawdown
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aptus Drawdown Managed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aptus Drawdown After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aptus Drawdown at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aptus Drawdown or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Aptus Drawdown, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aptus Drawdown Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aptus Drawdown's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aptus Drawdown's historical news coverage. Aptus Drawdown's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.31 and 52.57, respectively. We have considered Aptus Drawdown's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aptus Drawdown is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aptus Drawdown Managed is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aptus Drawdown Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Aptus Drawdown is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aptus Drawdown backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aptus Drawdown, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
51.80 | 51.94 | 0.00 |
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Aptus Drawdown Hype Timeline
Aptus Drawdown Managed is presently traded for 51.80. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Aptus is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aptus Drawdown is about 7000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 51.80. The company last dividend was issued on the 17th of March 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptus Drawdown to cross-verify your projections.Aptus Drawdown Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aptus Drawdown's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aptus Drawdown's future price movements. Getting to know how Aptus Drawdown's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aptus Drawdown may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PAPI | Morgan Stanley ETF | 0.05 | 3 per month | 0.43 | 0.02 | 1.33 | (1.02) | 2.91 | |
| JAJL | Innovator Equity Defined | (0.05) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.69) | 0.17 | (0.17) | 0.72 | |
| BUSA | 2023 EFT Series | 0.27 | 3 per month | 0.49 | 0.08 | 1.46 | (1.15) | 3.31 | |
| GNOV | FT Cboe Vest | 0.08 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 0.49 | (0.38) | 2.02 | |
| DUBS | Aptus Large Cap | (0.09) | 5 per month | 0.79 | (0.04) | 1.24 | (1.27) | 4.34 | |
| UAUG | Innovator Equity Ultra | 0.06 | 2 per month | 0.23 | (0.23) | 0.46 | (0.53) | 1.63 | |
| HOLA | JP Morgan Exchange Traded | (0.04) | 3 per month | 0.46 | (0.03) | 0.89 | (0.92) | 2.58 | |
| GAPR | First Trust Exchange Traded | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.51) | 0.25 | (0.20) | 0.73 | |
| BSEP | Innovator SP 500 | 0.15 | 4 per month | 0.43 | (0.13) | 0.67 | (0.78) | 2.31 | |
| KBWY | Invesco KBW Premium | (0.51) | 9 per month | 0.60 | 0.04 | 1.47 | (1.31) | 4.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aptus Drawdown
For every potential investor in Aptus, whether a beginner or expert, Aptus Drawdown's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aptus Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aptus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aptus Drawdown's price trends.Aptus Drawdown Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aptus Drawdown etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aptus Drawdown could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aptus Drawdown by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aptus Drawdown Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aptus Drawdown etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aptus Drawdown shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aptus Drawdown etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Aptus Drawdown Managed entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 51.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 51.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.14) |
Aptus Drawdown Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aptus Drawdown's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aptus Drawdown's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aptus etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4893 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6508 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.631 | |||
| Variance | 0.3981 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4715 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4236 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aptus Drawdown
The number of cover stories for Aptus Drawdown depends on current market conditions and Aptus Drawdown's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aptus Drawdown is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aptus Drawdown's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptus Drawdown to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
The market value of Aptus Drawdown Managed is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aptus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aptus Drawdown's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aptus Drawdown's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aptus Drawdown's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aptus Drawdown's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aptus Drawdown's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aptus Drawdown is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aptus Drawdown's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.