Aehr Test Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| AEHR Stock | USD 28.04 2.87 9.29% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aehr Test Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 28.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.52. Aehr Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Aehr Test's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aehr Test's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aehr Test fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Aehr Test's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.88) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.12) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.075 | Wall Street Target Price 24.3333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.04) |
Using Aehr Test hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aehr Test Systems from the perspective of Aehr Test response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aehr Test using Aehr Test's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aehr using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aehr Test's stock price.
Aehr Test Short Interest
An investor who is long Aehr Test may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Aehr Test and may potentially protect profits, hedge Aehr Test with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 19.4109 | Short Percent 0.1663 | Short Ratio 8.9 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.8 M | 50 Day MA 23.4962 |
Aehr Test Systems Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Aehr Test's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aehr. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aehr can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aehr Test Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Aehr Test Implied Volatility | 1.07 |
Aehr Test's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aehr Test Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aehr Test's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aehr Test stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aehr Test's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aehr Test Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 28.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.52. Aehr Test after-hype prediction price | USD 28.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aehr Test to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aehr contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aehr Test Systems will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0669% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Aehr Test trading at USD 28.04, that is roughly USD 0.0188 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aehr Test's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aehr Test Systems options at the current volatility level of 1.07%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Aehr Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aehr Test's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aehr Test's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aehr Test stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aehr Test's open interest, investors have to compare it to Aehr Test's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aehr Test is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aehr. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Aehr Test Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aehr price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aehr using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aehr charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aehr Test Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aehr Test Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 28.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08, mean absolute percentage error of 1.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aehr Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aehr Test's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aehr Test Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aehr Test | Aehr Test Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aehr Test Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aehr Test's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aehr Test's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.09 and 32.99, respectively. We have considered Aehr Test's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aehr Test stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aehr Test stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9819 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0426 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0765 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.045 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 63.515 |
Predictive Modules for Aehr Test
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aehr Test Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aehr Test After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aehr Test at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aehr Test or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aehr Test, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aehr Test Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aehr Test's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aehr Test's historical news coverage. Aehr Test's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.02 and 33.00, respectively. We have considered Aehr Test's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aehr Test is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aehr Test Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aehr Test Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aehr Test is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aehr Test backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aehr Test, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 4.95 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
28.04 | 28.01 | 0.11 |
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Aehr Test Hype Timeline
Aehr Test Systems is presently traded for 28.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Aehr is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 28.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Aehr Test is about 8534.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.06. About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.3. Aehr Test Systems had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aehr Test to cross-verify your projections.Aehr Test Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aehr Test's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aehr Test's future price movements. Getting to know how Aehr Test's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aehr Test may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SKYT | Skywater Technology | 2.01 | 11 per month | 5.62 | 0.15 | 12.40 | (9.12) | 48.91 | |
| ICHR | Ichor Holdings | (0.42) | 22 per month | 6.75 | 0.11 | 6.85 | (6.57) | 36.36 | |
| IMOS | ChipMOS Technologies | (0.59) | 14 per month | 2.19 | 0.25 | 8.78 | (3.79) | 23.93 | |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega | (0.42) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.18 | (6.22) | 30.66 | |
| LAES | SEALSQ Corp | (0.42) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 11.34 | (8.80) | 35.63 | |
| WOLF | Wolfspeed | (0.22) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 9.02 | (7.83) | 22.69 | |
| CEVA | CEVA Inc | (0.09) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.64 | (6.60) | 19.40 | |
| CTLP | Cantaloupe | (0.29) | 24 per month | 0.30 | (0.13) | 0.76 | (0.56) | 2.92 | |
| POET | POET Technologies | 0.55 | 10 per month | 5.82 | 0.0008 | 12.59 | (9.96) | 45.50 | |
| ITRN | Ituran Location and | 0.47 | 8 per month | 1.09 | 0.12 | 4.15 | (1.87) | 8.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aehr Test
For every potential investor in Aehr, whether a beginner or expert, Aehr Test's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aehr Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aehr. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aehr Test's price trends.Aehr Test Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aehr Test stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aehr Test could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aehr Test by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aehr Test Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aehr Test stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aehr Test shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aehr Test stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aehr Test Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aehr Test Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aehr Test's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aehr Test's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aehr stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.85 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.13 | |||
| Variance | 26.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 26.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 24.78 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aehr Test
The number of cover stories for Aehr Test depends on current market conditions and Aehr Test's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aehr Test is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aehr Test's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aehr Test Short Properties
Aehr Test's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aehr Test's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aehr Test Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aehr Test's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aehr Test's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 25.2 M |
Additional Tools for Aehr Stock Analysis
When running Aehr Test's price analysis, check to measure Aehr Test's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aehr Test is operating at the current time. Most of Aehr Test's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aehr Test's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aehr Test's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aehr Test to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.