VanEck Africa Etf Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AFK Etf | USD 27.89 1.96 6.57% |
VanEck Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength momentum indicator of VanEck Africa's share price is at 55. This suggests that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling VanEck Africa, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using VanEck Africa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VanEck Africa Index from the perspective of VanEck Africa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards VanEck Africa using VanEck Africa's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards VanEck using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of VanEck Africa's stock price.
VanEck Africa Implied Volatility | 0.71 |
VanEck Africa's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of VanEck Africa Index stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if VanEck Africa's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that VanEck Africa stock will not fluctuate a lot when VanEck Africa's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VanEck Africa Index on the next trading day is expected to be 27.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.83. VanEck Africa after-hype prediction price | USD 27.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Africa to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current VanEck contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that VanEck Africa Index will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0444% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With VanEck Africa trading at USD 27.89, that is roughly USD 0.0124 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating VanEck Africa's daily price movement you should consider acquiring VanEck Africa Index options at the current volatility level of 0.71%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 VanEck Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast VanEck Africa's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in VanEck Africa's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for VanEck Africa stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current VanEck Africa's open interest, investors have to compare it to VanEck Africa's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of VanEck Africa is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in VanEck. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
VanEck Africa Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VanEck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VanEck using various technical indicators. When you analyze VanEck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VanEck Africa Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VanEck Africa Index on the next trading day is expected to be 27.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck Africa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VanEck Africa Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VanEck Africa | VanEck Africa Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
VanEck Africa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VanEck Africa's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck Africa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.03 and 29.36, respectively. We have considered VanEck Africa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck Africa etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck Africa etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0472 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3639 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0141 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.8326 |
Predictive Modules for VanEck Africa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Africa Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VanEck Africa After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VanEck Africa at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VanEck Africa or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of VanEck Africa, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VanEck Africa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VanEck Africa's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VanEck Africa's historical news coverage. VanEck Africa's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.22 and 29.56, respectively. We have considered VanEck Africa's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VanEck Africa is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VanEck Africa Index is based on 3 months time horizon.
VanEck Africa Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as VanEck Africa is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VanEck Africa backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VanEck Africa, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
27.89 | 27.89 | 0.00 |
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VanEck Africa Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January VanEck Africa Index is traded for 27.89. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. VanEck is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on VanEck Africa is about 16700.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.89. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.53. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Africa to cross-verify your projections.VanEck Africa Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VanEck Africa's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VanEck Africa's future price movements. Getting to know how VanEck Africa's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VanEck Africa may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IQDY | FlexShares International Quality | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.43 | 0.21 | 1.32 | (1.11) | 2.74 | |
| USAI | Pacer American Energy | (0.36) | 3 per month | 0.73 | 0.11 | 1.59 | (1.25) | 4.09 | |
| FEUZ | First Trust Eurozone | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.56 | 0.17 | 1.33 | (1.14) | 3.42 | |
| BLUI | Exchange Traded Concepts | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.13 | (0.19) | 0.28 | (0.36) | 0.83 | |
| KWT | iShares MSCI Kuwait | 0.25 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.04 | (1.31) | 8.55 | |
| EOCT | Innovator ETFs Trust | (0.31) | 2 per month | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.71 | (0.54) | 1.64 | |
| REVS | Columbia Research Enhanced | 0.04 | 6 per month | 0.60 | 0.04 | 1.32 | (1.17) | 2.75 | |
| RFDA | RiverFront Dynamic Dividend | 0.24 | 3 per month | 0.61 | (0.01) | 1.22 | (1.23) | 3.65 | |
| RAYE | Rayliant Quantamental Emerging | (0.09) | 2 per month | 1.98 | (0) | 3.73 | (3.00) | 13.90 | |
| BUL | Pacer Cash Cows | 0.12 | 5 per month | 0.83 | 0.05 | 1.66 | (1.57) | 3.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for VanEck Africa
For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck Africa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck Africa's price trends.VanEck Africa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck Africa etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck Africa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck Africa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VanEck Africa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VanEck Africa etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VanEck Africa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VanEck Africa etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VanEck Africa Index entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9446.84 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.32) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.93 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.26 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 28.14 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.35) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.96) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 55.68 |
VanEck Africa Risk Indicators
The analysis of VanEck Africa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck Africa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaneck etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Variance | 1.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VanEck Africa
The number of cover stories for VanEck Africa depends on current market conditions and VanEck Africa's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VanEck Africa is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VanEck Africa's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Africa to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Investors evaluate VanEck Africa Index using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating VanEck Africa's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause VanEck Africa's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that VanEck Africa's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether VanEck Africa represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, VanEck Africa's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.