Arif Habib Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| AHCL Stock | 16.95 0.43 2.47% |
Arif Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Arif Habib stock prices and determine the direction of Arif Habib's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Arif Habib's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of today, The value of RSI of Arif Habib's share price is at 50. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Arif Habib, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Arif Habib hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arif Habib from the perspective of Arif Habib response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Arif Habib on the next trading day is expected to be 18.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.03. Arif Habib after-hype prediction price | PKR 16.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Arif |
Arif Habib Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arif price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arif using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arif charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arif Habib Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Arif Habib on the next trading day is expected to be 18.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arif Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arif Habib's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arif Habib Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arif Habib | Arif Habib Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Arif Habib Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arif Habib's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arif Habib's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.35 and 20.22, respectively. We have considered Arif Habib's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arif Habib stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arif Habib stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.342 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5579 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0323 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.0319 |
Predictive Modules for Arif Habib
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arif Habib. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arif Habib After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arif Habib at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arif Habib or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arif Habib, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arif Habib Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arif Habib's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arif Habib's historical news coverage. Arif Habib's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.00 and 18.90, respectively. We have considered Arif Habib's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arif Habib is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arif Habib is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arif Habib Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arif Habib is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arif Habib backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arif Habib, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.95 | 16.95 | 0.00 |
|
Arif Habib Hype Timeline
Arif Habib is presently traded for 16.95on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Arif is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Arif Habib is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.95. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Arif Habib had 1:10 split on the 23rd of March 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arif Habib to cross-verify your projections.Arif Habib Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arif Habib's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arif Habib's future price movements. Getting to know how Arif Habib's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arif Habib may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ISL | International Steels | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.28 | 0.01 | 4.44 | (3.36) | 16.62 | |
| ATIL | Atlas Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.79 | (0.07) | 1.62 | (1.54) | 3.96 | |
| MSCL | Metropolitan Steel Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.14 | 0.13 | 9.99 | (3.87) | 16.23 | |
| TPLI | TPL Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.82 | (0.02) | 5.20 | (4.44) | 15.62 | |
| ABL | Allied Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.78 | (0.01) | 3.36 | (1.93) | 11.32 | |
| AIRLINK | Air Link Communication | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.53 | (2.76) | 14.58 | |
| AICL | Adamjee Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.22 | 0.05 | 5.95 | (3.43) | 17.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arif Habib
For every potential investor in Arif, whether a beginner or expert, Arif Habib's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arif Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arif. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arif Habib's price trends.Arif Habib Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arif Habib stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arif Habib could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arif Habib by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arif Habib Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arif Habib stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arif Habib shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arif Habib stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arif Habib entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arif Habib Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arif Habib's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arif Habib's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arif stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arif Habib
The number of cover stories for Arif Habib depends on current market conditions and Arif Habib's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arif Habib is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arif Habib's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Arif Habib Short Properties
Arif Habib's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arif Habib's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arif Habib often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arif Habib's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arif Habib's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 408.4 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 1.2 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 6.5 B |
Other Information on Investing in Arif Stock
Arif Habib financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arif Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arif with respect to the benefits of owning Arif Habib security.