Argha Karya Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

AKPI Stock  IDR 600.00  20.00  3.23%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Argha Karya Prima on the next trading day is expected to be 629.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,159. Argha Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Argha Karya price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Argha Karya Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Argha Karya Prima on the next trading day is expected to be 629.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.69, mean absolute percentage error of 998.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,159.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Argha Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Argha Karya's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Argha Karya Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Argha KaryaArgha Karya Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Argha Karya Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Argha Karya's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Argha Karya's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 625.62 and 633.97, respectively. We have considered Argha Karya's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
600.00
625.62
Downside
629.80
Expected Value
633.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Argha Karya stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Argha Karya stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria126.855
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation18.6939
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0277
SAESum of the absolute errors1159.0234
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Argha Karya Prima historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Argha Karya

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Argha Karya Prima. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
595.82600.00604.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
550.22554.40660.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
587.48636.04684.60
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Argha Karya

For every potential investor in Argha, whether a beginner or expert, Argha Karya's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Argha Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Argha. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Argha Karya's price trends.

Argha Karya Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Argha Karya stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Argha Karya could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Argha Karya by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Argha Karya Prima Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Argha Karya's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Argha Karya's current price.

Argha Karya Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Argha Karya stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Argha Karya shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Argha Karya stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Argha Karya Prima entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Argha Karya Risk Indicators

The analysis of Argha Karya's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Argha Karya's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting argha stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect

Other Information on Investing in Argha Stock

Argha Karya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Argha Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Argha with respect to the benefits of owning Argha Karya security.