Alico Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ALCO Stock | USD 42.14 0.83 2.01% |
Alico Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Alico's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alico's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alico fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Alico's stock price is about 69. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alico, making its price go up or down. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.352 | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.06) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.73 | Wall Street Target Price 43 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.39) |
Using Alico hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alico Inc from the perspective of Alico response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Alico Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alico Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 42.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.37.Alico Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alico's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alico. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alico can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alico Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alico's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alico.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alico Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 42.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.37. Alico after-hype prediction price | USD 42.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alico to cross-verify your projections. Alico Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alico price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alico using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alico charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alico Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alico Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 42.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alico Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alico's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alico Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alico | Alico Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Alico Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alico's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alico's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.40 and 43.88, respectively. We have considered Alico's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alico stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alico stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3917 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1618 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5062 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0139 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.37 |
Predictive Modules for Alico
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alico Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alico's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alico After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alico at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alico or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alico, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alico Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alico's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alico's historical news coverage. Alico's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.44 and 43.90, respectively. We have considered Alico's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alico is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alico Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alico Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alico is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alico backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alico, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 1.74 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.14 | 42.17 | 0.19 |
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Alico Hype Timeline
Alico Inc is presently traded for 42.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Alico is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 42.17. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.45%. The volatility of related hype on Alico is about 940.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.22. About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Alico was presently reported as 13.48. The company recorded a loss per share of 19.29. Alico Inc last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. The entity had 4:1 split on the 23rd of February 1987. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alico to cross-verify your projections.Alico Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alico's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alico's future price movements. Getting to know how Alico's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alico may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LMNR | Limoneira Co | (0.05) | 6 per month | 2.11 | (0.03) | 2.84 | (2.80) | 10.20 | |
| DDEJF | Dundee Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.23 | 0.14 | 4.60 | (5.39) | 16.43 | |
| RSSFF | Affinor Growers | 0.00 | 1 per month | 12.01 | 0.07 | 8.57 | (37.50) | 292.86 | |
| AFRI | Forafric Global PLC | (0.47) | 7 per month | 1.78 | 0.04 | 4.29 | (3.21) | 9.71 | |
| SGLA | Sino Green Land | 2.04 | 20 per month | 10.63 | 0.09 | 22.27 | (7.41) | 168.07 | |
| CTUNF | Clean Seas Seafood | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| UVPOF | Univanich Palm Oil | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CHYI | Chykingyoung Investment Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 38.00 | (11.76) | 696.81 | |
| MSRM | Mushrooms | 0.33 | 13 per month | 11.99 | 0.09 | 35.59 | (24.02) | 124.59 | |
| PRCF | Protein Reactor Combined | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alico
For every potential investor in Alico, whether a beginner or expert, Alico's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alico Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alico. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alico's price trends.Alico Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alico stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alico could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alico by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alico Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alico stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alico shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alico stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alico Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alico Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alico's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alico's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alico stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Variance | 3.46 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alico
The number of cover stories for Alico depends on current market conditions and Alico's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alico is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alico's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alico Short Properties
Alico's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alico's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alico Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alico's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alico's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alico to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Will Agricultural Products & Services sector continue expanding? Could Alico diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alico. If investors know Alico will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Alico data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.352 | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share (19.29) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) |
Understanding Alico Inc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Alico's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Alico's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Alico's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Alico's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Alico represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Alico's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.