Allegro Microsystems Stock Forward View

Key Indicators . Naive Prediction . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Allegro Microsystems
ALGM Stock  USD 48.95  1.02  2.13%   
Allegro Microsystems's Naive Prediction forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Naive Prediction model projects Allegro Microsystems at 49.47 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The Naive Prediction output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.

Allegro Microsystems Cash Forecast

Predicting Allegro Microsystems' cash flow requires a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. Probabilistic estimates of future performance inform valuation and risk management decisions for Allegro Microsystems.
 
Cash  
 First Reported
2019-03-31
 Previous Quarter
126.81 million
 Current Value
163.4 million
 Quarterly Volatility
114.47 million
Macro event markers
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Allegro Microsystems is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Allegro Microsystems on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts Allegro Microsystems at 49.47 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 60.18 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Allegro Microsystems' price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Allegro Microsystems  Allegro Microsystems Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The projected range for Allegro Microsystems reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The current forecast range spans downside near 45.47 and upside near 53.47. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
48.95
45.47
Downside
49.47
Expected Value
53.47
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for Allegro Microsystems stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.4604
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9707
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0261
SAESum of the absolute errors60.183
The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that Allegro Microsystems price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for Allegro Microsystems

Analyzing Allegro Microsystems' price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Allegro Microsystems' chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Allegro Microsystems Related Equities

Sizing up Allegro Microsystems against these stocks within the Information Technology space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Looking at Allegro Microsystems' pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Allegro Microsystems across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps. Combining quantitative ratios with qualitative context such as management quality and market position sharpens peer comparisons.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allegro Microsystems Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Allegro Microsystems, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Allegro Microsystems.
Accumulation Distribution98649.54
Daily Balance Of Power0.534
Rate Of Daily Change1.02
Day Median Price48.22
Day Typical Price48.46
Price Action Indicator1.25
Period Momentum Indicator1.02
Relative Strength Index62.14

Allegro Microsystems Risk Indicators

Analyzing Allegro Microsystems' basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for allegro stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Allegro Microsystems.
Mean Deviation3.0
Semi Deviation3.55
Standard Deviation4.01
Variance16.09
Downside Variance14.46
Semi Variance12.61
Expected Short fall-3.06
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Allegro Microsystems Short Properties

Short-interest data for Allegro Microsystems reveals whether bearish conviction in the market is gaining traction. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding187.71 million
Cash And Short Term Investments121.33 million
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