Align Technology Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALGN Stock | USD 168.73 0.19 0.11% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Align Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 171.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 232.33. Align Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Align Technology's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Align Technology's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Align Technology fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Align Technology's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.0324 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.1918 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.0208 | Wall Street Target Price 183.8667 |
Using Align Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Align Technology from the perspective of Align Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Align Technology using Align Technology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Align using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Align Technology's stock price.
Align Technology Short Interest
An investor who is long Align Technology may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Align Technology and may potentially protect profits, hedge Align Technology with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 159.3591 | Short Percent 0.0429 | Short Ratio 1.92 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.9 M | 50 Day MA 156.0046 |
Align Technology Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Align Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Align. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Align can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Align Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Align Technology Implied Volatility | 0.54 |
Align Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Align Technology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Align Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Align Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Align Technology's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Align Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 171.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 232.33. Align Technology after-hype prediction price | USD 168.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Align Technology to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Align contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Align Technology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0338% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Align Technology trading at USD 168.73, that is roughly USD 0.0569 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Align Technology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Align Technology options at the current volatility level of 0.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Align Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Align Technology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Align Technology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Align Technology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Align Technology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Align Technology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Align Technology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Align. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Align Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Align price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Align using various technical indicators. When you analyze Align charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Align Technology Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Align Technology's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2000-12-31 | Previous Quarter 901.2 M | Current Value 1 B | Quarterly Volatility 356.2 M |
Align Technology Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Align Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 171.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.75, mean absolute percentage error of 19.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 232.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Align Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Align Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Align Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Align Technology | Align Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Align Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Align Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Align Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 169.94 and 174.02, respectively. We have considered Align Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Align Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Align Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9394 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.7472 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0247 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 232.3294 |
Predictive Modules for Align Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Align Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Align Technology After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Align Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Align Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Align Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Align Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Align Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Align Technology's historical news coverage. Align Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 166.69 and 170.77, respectively. We have considered Align Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Align Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Align Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Align Technology Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Align Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Align Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Align Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.38 | 2.04 | 0.65 | 0.47 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
168.73 | 168.73 | 0.00 |
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Align Technology Hype Timeline
Align Technology is presently traded for 168.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.65, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.47. Align is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 118.6%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.38%. %. The volatility of related hype on Align Technology is about 163.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 169.20. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Align Technology was presently reported as 54.93. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.01. Align Technology recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.15. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Align Technology to cross-verify your projections.Align Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Align Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Align Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Align Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Align Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QGEN | Qiagen NV | (0.65) | 21 per month | 1.12 | 0.09 | 2.86 | (2.44) | 19.10 | |
| GMED | Globus Medical | 2.17 | 13 per month | 0.82 | 0.13 | 3.67 | (2.31) | 38.89 | |
| PEN | Penumbra | 11.85 | 24 per month | 1.36 | 0.17 | 4.14 | (2.61) | 23.11 | |
| ENSG | The Ensign Group | 0.84 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.51 | (1.62) | 6.93 | |
| BMRN | Biomarin Pharmaceutical | (1.25) | 11 per month | 1.68 | 0.02 | 3.20 | (3.05) | 22.06 | |
| BIO | Bio Rad Laboratories | 1.56 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.31 | (2.90) | 8.24 | |
| EXEL | Exelixis | 0.95 | 11 per month | 1.58 | 0.14 | 4.60 | (2.93) | 11.45 | |
| HIMS | Hims Hers Health | (1.42) | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 3.89 | (5.66) | 15.28 | |
| RVTY | Revvity | (2.83) | 29 per month | 1.45 | 0.12 | 4.52 | (2.84) | 8.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Align Technology
For every potential investor in Align, whether a beginner or expert, Align Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Align Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Align. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Align Technology's price trends.Align Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Align Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Align Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Align Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Align Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Align Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Align Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Align Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Align Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5298.95 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.08) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 168.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 168.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.19) |
Align Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Align Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Align Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting align stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Align Technology
The number of cover stories for Align Technology depends on current market conditions and Align Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Align Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Align Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Align Technology Short Properties
Align Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Align Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Align Technology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Align Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Align Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 75 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Align Technology to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Align Stock, please use our How to Invest in Align Technology guide.You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Align Technology. If investors know Align will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Align Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | Earnings Share 5.15 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.018 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Align Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Align that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Align Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Align Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Align Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Align Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Align Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Align Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Align Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.