Applied Materials Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AMAT Stock | USD 336.75 4.04 1.21% |
Applied Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Applied Materials' stock price is slightly above 68. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Applied, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.133 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.6677 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.0598 | Wall Street Target Price 317.6061 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 2.1007 |
Using Applied Materials hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied Materials from the perspective of Applied Materials response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Applied Materials using Applied Materials' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Applied using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Applied Materials' stock price.
Applied Materials Short Interest
An investor who is long Applied Materials may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Applied Materials and may potentially protect profits, hedge Applied Materials with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 205.1671 | Short Percent 0.0203 | Short Ratio 2.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 14 M | 50 Day MA 270.9058 |
Applied Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applied Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 339.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 348.59.Applied Materials Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Applied Materials' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Applied. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Applied can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Applied Materials. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Applied Materials' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Applied Materials.
Applied Materials Implied Volatility | 0.71 |
Applied Materials' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Applied Materials stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Applied Materials' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Applied Materials stock will not fluctuate a lot when Applied Materials' options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applied Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 339.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 348.59. Applied Materials after-hype prediction price | USD 340.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Materials to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Applied contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Applied Materials will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0444% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Applied Materials trading at USD 336.75, that is roughly USD 0.15 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Applied Materials' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Applied Materials options at the current volatility level of 0.71%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Applied Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Applied Materials' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Applied Materials' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Applied Materials stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Applied Materials' open interest, investors have to compare it to Applied Materials' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Applied Materials is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Applied. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Applied Materials Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applied Materials Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applied Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 339.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.91, mean absolute percentage error of 57.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 348.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applied Materials Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied Materials | Applied Materials Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Applied Materials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applied Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 336.70 and 342.16, respectively. We have considered Applied Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.8796 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.9083 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0222 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 348.5918 |
Predictive Modules for Applied Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Applied Materials After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Applied Materials at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applied Materials or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Applied Materials, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Applied Materials Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Applied Materials' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applied Materials' historical news coverage. Applied Materials' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 303.08 and 343.17, respectively. We have considered Applied Materials' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Applied Materials is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applied Materials is based on 3 months time horizon.
Applied Materials Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Applied Materials is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied Materials backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied Materials, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.64 | 2.73 | 3.69 | 1.28 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
336.75 | 340.44 | 1.10 |
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Applied Materials Hype Timeline
Applied Materials is presently traded for 336.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.69, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.28. Applied is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 340.44 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 47.4%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 1.1%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.64%. The volatility of related hype on Applied Materials is about 136.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 338.03. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 28.37 B. Net Income was 7 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 13.81 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Materials to cross-verify your projections.Applied Materials Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Applied Materials' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applied Materials' future price movements. Getting to know how Applied Materials' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applied Materials may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | (14.86) | 7 per month | 2.43 | 0.22 | 6.27 | (4.85) | 12.15 | |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.48 | (3.93) | 15.88 | |
| KLAC | KLA Tencor | (6.85) | 7 per month | 2.14 | 0.18 | 4.89 | (4.19) | 12.91 | |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 2.96 | 8 per month | 1.15 | 0.13 | 4.19 | (2.39) | 11.75 | |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | (0.88) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 4.63 | (4.71) | 10.33 | |
| INTC | Intel | (0.18) | 6 per month | 3.94 | 0.09 | 10.19 | (5.72) | 28.75 | |
| INTU | Intuit Inc | 20.85 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.38 | (3.37) | 10.42 | |
| MU | Micron Technology | 16.26 | 8 per month | 2.95 | 0.27 | 8.93 | (5.56) | 19.80 | |
| NOW | ServiceNow | 2.56 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 2.43 | (3.12) | 14.07 | |
| SONY | Sony Group Corp | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 2.31 | (2.80) | 7.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Applied Materials
For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied Materials' price trends.Applied Materials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Materials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Applied Materials Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applied Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.68 | |||
| Variance | 7.18 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Applied Materials
The number of cover stories for Applied Materials depends on current market conditions and Applied Materials' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applied Materials is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applied Materials' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Applied Materials Short Properties
Applied Materials' future price predictability will typically decrease when Applied Materials' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Applied Materials often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Applied Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 808 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.6 B |
Additional Tools for Applied Stock Analysis
When running Applied Materials' price analysis, check to measure Applied Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Materials is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.