AGF American Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

AMGR Fund   25.40  0.22  0.87%   
Investors can use prediction functions to forecast AGF American's fund prices and determine the direction of AGF American Growth's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of AGF American's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of AGF American's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with AGF American Growth, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using AGF American hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AGF American Growth from the perspective of AGF American response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

AGF American after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 25.4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.

AGF American Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AGF price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AGF using various technical indicators. When you analyze AGF charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for AGF American works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.
When AGF American Growth prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any AGF American Growth trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent AGF American observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for AGF American

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AGF American Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

AGF American Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

As far as predicting the price of AGF American at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AGF American or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of AGF American, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

AGF American Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as AGF American is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AGF American backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AGF American, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
1.45
 0.00  
  0.01 
1 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
25.40
25.40
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

AGF American Hype Timeline

AGF American Growth is presently traded for 25.40on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. AGF is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on AGF American is about 2139.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.41. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be very soon.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.

AGF American Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to AGF American's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AGF American's future price movements. Getting to know how AGF American's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AGF American may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMGRAGF American Growth 0.00 1 per month 0.96  0.04  3.07 (1.74) 4.81 
0P000077R7CDSPI Global Growth 0.00 0 per month 0.75 (0.06) 1.30 (1.23) 3.33 
0P0001KUBJTangerine Equity Growth 0.00 0 per month 0.56 (0.05) 0.95 (1.00) 2.84 
0P0001GZLRFidelity Canadian Growth 0.00 0 per month 0.84  0.08  1.42 (1.74) 4.66 
0P0000WJLCIG Putnam Growth 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.10) 1.51 (1.85) 5.42 
FTHIFidelity Tactical High 0.08 3 per month 0.00 (0.15) 1.41 (1.39) 6.80 
GLDENinepoint Gold and 0.53 6 per month 1.32  0.23  3.81 (2.92) 7.70 
0P00007694Fidelity ClearPath 2045 0.00 0 per month 1.27  0.01  1.20 (1.17) 14.64 
0P000070OOFRIQUE Balanced Portfolio 0.00 0 per month 0.36 (0.10) 0.64 (0.60) 1.75 

Other Forecasting Options for AGF American

For every potential investor in AGF, whether a beginner or expert, AGF American's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AGF Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AGF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AGF American's price trends.

AGF American Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AGF American fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AGF American could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AGF American by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AGF American Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AGF American fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AGF American shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AGF American fund market strength indicators, traders can identify AGF American Growth entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

AGF American Risk Indicators

The analysis of AGF American's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AGF American's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agf fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for AGF American

The number of cover stories for AGF American depends on current market conditions and AGF American's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AGF American is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AGF American's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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