Agriculture Natural Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| ANSCU Stock | 11.10 0.00 0.00% |
Agriculture Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Agriculture Natural's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.959 |
Using Agriculture Natural hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Agriculture Natural Solutions from the perspective of Agriculture Natural response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Agriculture Natural Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 11.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.10. Agriculture Natural after-hype prediction price | USD 11.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Agriculture Natural Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Agriculture price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Agriculture using various technical indicators. When you analyze Agriculture charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Agriculture Natural Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Agriculture Natural Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 11.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agriculture Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agriculture Natural's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agriculture Natural Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Agriculture Natural | Agriculture Natural Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Agriculture Natural Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agriculture Natural's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agriculture Natural's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.55 and 11.65, respectively. We have considered Agriculture Natural's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agriculture Natural stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agriculture Natural stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.0815 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0058 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0186 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.095 |
Predictive Modules for Agriculture Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agriculture Natural. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agriculture Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Agriculture Natural After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Agriculture Natural at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Agriculture Natural or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Agriculture Natural, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Agriculture Natural Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Agriculture Natural's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Agriculture Natural's historical news coverage. Agriculture Natural's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.55 and 11.65, respectively. We have considered Agriculture Natural's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Agriculture Natural is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Agriculture Natural is based on 3 months time horizon.
Agriculture Natural Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Agriculture Natural is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Agriculture Natural backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Agriculture Natural, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.10 | 11.10 | 0.00 |
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Agriculture Natural Hype Timeline
Agriculture Natural is presently traded for 11.10. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Agriculture is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Agriculture Natural is about 19250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.10. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agriculture Natural to cross-verify your projections.Agriculture Natural Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Agriculture Natural's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Agriculture Natural's future price movements. Getting to know how Agriculture Natural's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Agriculture Natural may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SOR | Source Capital Closed | 0.23 | 8 per month | 1.30 | 0.04 | 1.83 | (2.42) | 5.72 | |
| GIG | GigCapital7 Corp Class | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 0.19 | (0.28) | 1.03 | |
| SAR | Saratoga Investment Corp | (0.09) | 6 per month | 0.77 | 0.09 | 1.60 | (1.27) | 4.29 | |
| PNNT | PennantPark Investment | (0.05) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.16 | (2.60) | 7.91 | |
| DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment | (0.35) | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1.45 | (1.64) | 45.03 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | 0.42 | 9 per month | 1.55 | (0) | 2.10 | (1.72) | 9.50 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | (0.16) | 8 per month | 1.52 | (0.02) | 2.04 | (2.59) | 6.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Agriculture Natural
For every potential investor in Agriculture, whether a beginner or expert, Agriculture Natural's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agriculture Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agriculture. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agriculture Natural's price trends.Agriculture Natural Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agriculture Natural stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agriculture Natural could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agriculture Natural by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agriculture Natural Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agriculture Natural stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agriculture Natural shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agriculture Natural stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agriculture Natural Solutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Agriculture Natural Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agriculture Natural's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agriculture Natural's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agriculture stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1289 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5244 | |||
| Variance | 0.275 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Agriculture Natural
The number of cover stories for Agriculture Natural depends on current market conditions and Agriculture Natural's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Agriculture Natural is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Agriculture Natural's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Agriculture Natural Short Properties
Agriculture Natural's future price predictability will typically decrease when Agriculture Natural's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Agriculture Natural Solutions often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Agriculture Natural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agriculture Natural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.00 |
Additional Tools for Agriculture Stock Analysis
When running Agriculture Natural's price analysis, check to measure Agriculture Natural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agriculture Natural is operating at the current time. Most of Agriculture Natural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agriculture Natural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agriculture Natural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agriculture Natural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.