Aon PLC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AON Stock | USD 333.00 2.25 0.68% |
Aon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Aon PLC's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aon PLC's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aon PLC fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Aon PLC's share price is approaching 43. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aon PLC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.344 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.7964 | EPS Estimate Current Year 16.966 | EPS Estimate Next Year 19.0251 | Wall Street Target Price 394.8421 |
Using Aon PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aon PLC from the perspective of Aon PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aon PLC using Aon PLC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aon PLC's stock price.
Aon PLC Short Interest
An investor who is long Aon PLC may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Aon PLC and may potentially protect profits, hedge Aon PLC with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 355.7176 | Short Percent 0.0092 | Short Ratio 2.23 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 347.9878 |
Aon Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aon PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 332.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 158.58.Aon PLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Aon PLC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aon PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Aon PLC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Aon PLC.
Aon PLC Implied Volatility | 0.33 |
Aon PLC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aon PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aon PLC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aon PLC stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aon PLC's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aon PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 332.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 158.58. Aon PLC after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aon PLC to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aon PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0206% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Aon PLC trading at USD 333.0, that is roughly USD 0.0687 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aon PLC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aon PLC options at the current volatility level of 0.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Aon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aon PLC's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aon PLC's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aon PLC stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aon PLC's open interest, investors have to compare it to Aon PLC's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aon PLC is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Aon PLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aon PLC Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Aon PLC's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1994-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1 B | Current Value 1.1 B | Quarterly Volatility 245.2 M |
Aon PLC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aon PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 332.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.56, mean absolute percentage error of 10.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 158.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aon PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aon PLC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aon PLC | Aon PLC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aon PLC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aon PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aon PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 331.58 and 333.65, respectively. We have considered Aon PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aon PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aon PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.268 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.5578 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 158.585 |
Predictive Modules for Aon PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aon PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aon PLC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aon PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aon PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aon PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aon PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aon PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aon PLC's historical news coverage. Aon PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 1.14, respectively. We have considered Aon PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aon PLC is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aon PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aon PLC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aon PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aon PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aon PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 15 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
333.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Aon PLC Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Aon PLC is traded for 333.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Aon is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 70.07%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aon PLC is about 305.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 333.01. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.46. Aon PLC recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.5. The entity last dividend was issued on the 2nd of February 2026. The firm had 3:2 split on the 18th of May 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aon PLC to cross-verify your projections.Aon PLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aon PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aon PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how Aon PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aon PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AJG | Arthur J Gallagher | 5.11 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.83 | (3.84) | 8.71 | |
| MMC | MMC Old | (0.46) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.97 | (1.64) | 9.33 | |
| MFG | Mizuho Financial Group | (0.24) | 15 per month | 1.15 | 0.26 | 2.99 | (2.03) | 7.66 | |
| BNS | Bank of Nova | 0.43 | 9 per month | 0.76 | 0.19 | 1.65 | (1.29) | 6.23 | |
| BK | The Bank of | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.93 | 0.1 | 1.88 | (1.70) | 5.56 | |
| NU | Nu Holdings | 0.33 | 6 per month | 1.65 | 0.10 | 3.85 | (2.70) | 9.72 | |
| ING | ING Group NV | (1.23) | 21 per month | 0.95 | 0.20 | 2.67 | (2.00) | 8.20 | |
| APO | Apollo Global Management | (0.96) | 7 per month | 1.87 | 0.03 | 2.62 | (3.64) | 10.80 | |
| PNC | PNC Financial Services | (0.24) | 12 per month | 0.61 | 0.20 | 2.38 | (1.53) | 5.33 | |
| CM | Canadian Imperial Bank | 0.59 | 11 per month | 0.89 | 0.13 | 1.52 | (1.62) | 6.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aon PLC
For every potential investor in Aon, whether a beginner or expert, Aon PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aon PLC's price trends.Aon PLC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aon PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aon PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aon PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aon PLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aon PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aon PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aon PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aon PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 30807.35 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2922 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 331.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 331.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.75 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.25 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.57 |
Aon PLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aon PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aon PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8281 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Variance | 1.3 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aon PLC
The number of cover stories for Aon PLC depends on current market conditions and Aon PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aon PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aon PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aon PLC Short Properties
Aon PLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aon PLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aon PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aon PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aon PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 212.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aon PLC to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Aon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aon PLC guide.You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Will Insurance Brokers sector continue expanding? Could Aon diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aon PLC. If investors know Aon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Aon PLC data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.344 | Dividend Share 2.91 | Earnings Share 12.5 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.074 |
Investors evaluate Aon PLC using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Aon PLC's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Aon PLC's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Aon PLC's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Aon PLC represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Aon PLC's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.