Arthur J Gallagher Stock Price Prediction
| AJG Stock | USD 294.82 0.97 0.33% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
33
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.086 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.11 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.0546 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.5563 | Wall Street Target Price 305.008 |
Using Arthur J hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arthur J Gallagher from the perspective of Arthur J response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arthur J using Arthur J's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arthur using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arthur J's stock price.
Arthur J Implied Volatility | 0.29 |
Arthur J's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arthur J Gallagher stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arthur J's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arthur J stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arthur J's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arthur J to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arthur because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Arthur J after-hype prediction price | USD 294.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arthur contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arthur J Gallagher will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0181% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Arthur J trading at USD 294.82, that is roughly USD 0.0534 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arthur J's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arthur J Gallagher options at the current volatility level of 0.29%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Arthur |
Arthur J After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arthur J at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arthur J or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arthur J, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arthur J Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arthur J's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arthur J's historical news coverage. Arthur J's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 293.54 and 295.96, respectively. We have considered Arthur J's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arthur J is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arthur J Gallagher is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arthur J Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arthur J is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arthur J backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arthur J, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.21 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
294.82 | 294.75 | 0.02 |
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Arthur J Hype Timeline
On the 18th of January 2025 Arthur J Gallagher is traded for 294.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Arthur is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 294.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 65.41%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Arthur J is about 144.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 294.79. About 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.02. Arthur J Gallagher recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.25. The entity last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 19th of January 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Arthur J Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Arthur J Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arthur J's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arthur J's future price movements. Getting to know how Arthur J's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arthur J may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AON | Aon PLC | (2.34) | 10 per month | 0.91 | 0.05 | 1.92 | (1.76) | 7.95 | |
| BRO | Brown Brown | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.07 | 0.02 | 1.88 | (2.13) | 6.33 | |
| WTW | Willis Towers Watson | 0.11 | 10 per month | 0.81 | 0.14 | 2.67 | (1.46) | 6.26 | |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity | (3.67) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.99 | (3.12) | 9.75 | |
| MMC | Marsh McLennan Companies | 0.05 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.14 | (1.36) | 4.62 | |
| BRP | BRP Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.74 | 0.03 | 4.05 | (4.84) | 12.03 | |
| FANH | FANH Old | 0.07 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.72 | (9.09) | 28.53 | |
| CRVL | CorVel Corp | (0.89) | 10 per month | 1.66 | 0.03 | 3.43 | (2.49) | 15.34 |
Arthur J Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arthur price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arthur using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arthur charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Arthur J Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Arthur J stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arthur J Gallagher, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arthur J based on analysis of Arthur J hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arthur J's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arthur J's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0108 | 0.0098 | 0.00882 | 0.008379 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.64 | 4.8 | 4.32 | 4.53 |
Story Coverage note for Arthur J
The number of cover stories for Arthur J depends on current market conditions and Arthur J's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arthur J is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arthur J's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arthur J Short Properties
Arthur J's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arthur J's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arthur J Gallagher often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arthur J's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arthur J's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 219.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 971.5 M |
Complementary Tools for Arthur Stock analysis
When running Arthur J's price analysis, check to measure Arthur J's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arthur J is operating at the current time. Most of Arthur J's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arthur J's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arthur J's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arthur J to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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