Algonquin Power Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AQN Stock | USD 6.38 0.02 0.31% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Algonquin Power Utilities on the next trading day is expected to be 6.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.29. Algonquin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Algonquin Power's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Algonquin Power's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Algonquin Power fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Algonquin Power's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0675 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.3171 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3647 | Wall Street Target Price 6.75 |
Using Algonquin Power hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Algonquin Power Utilities from the perspective of Algonquin Power response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Algonquin Power using Algonquin Power's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Algonquin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Algonquin Power's stock price.
Algonquin Power Short Interest
An investor who is long Algonquin Power may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Algonquin Power and may potentially protect profits, hedge Algonquin Power with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.7827 | Short Percent 0.0274 | Short Ratio 1.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.5 M | 50 Day MA 6.1354 |
Algonquin Power Utilities Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Algonquin Power's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Algonquin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Algonquin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Algonquin Power Utilities. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Algonquin Power Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
Algonquin Power's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Algonquin Power Utilities stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Algonquin Power's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Algonquin Power stock will not fluctuate a lot when Algonquin Power's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Algonquin Power Utilities on the next trading day is expected to be 6.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.29. Algonquin Power after-hype prediction price | USD 6.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Algonquin Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Algonquin Power's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Algonquin Power's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Algonquin Power stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Algonquin Power's open interest, investors have to compare it to Algonquin Power's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Algonquin Power is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Algonquin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Algonquin Power Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Algonquin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Algonquin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Algonquin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Algonquin Power Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Algonquin Power Utilities on the next trading day is expected to be 6.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Algonquin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Algonquin Power's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Algonquin Power Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Algonquin Power | Algonquin Power Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Algonquin Power Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Algonquin Power's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Algonquin Power's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.61 and 8.15, respectively. We have considered Algonquin Power's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Algonquin Power stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Algonquin Power stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.7687 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0125 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0715 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.29 |
Predictive Modules for Algonquin Power
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Algonquin Power Utilities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Algonquin Power After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Algonquin Power at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Algonquin Power or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Algonquin Power, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Algonquin Power Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Algonquin Power's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Algonquin Power's historical news coverage. Algonquin Power's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.64 and 8.18, respectively. We have considered Algonquin Power's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Algonquin Power is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Algonquin Power Utilities is based on 3 months time horizon.
Algonquin Power Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Algonquin Power is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Algonquin Power backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Algonquin Power, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.77 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.38 | 6.41 | 0.47 |
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Algonquin Power Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Algonquin Power Utilities is traded for 6.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Algonquin is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.41 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.47%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Algonquin Power is about 678.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.32. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.32 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 119.72 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 911.16 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Algonquin Power to cross-verify your projections.Algonquin Power Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Algonquin Power's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Algonquin Power's future price movements. Getting to know how Algonquin Power's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Algonquin Power may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ENLT | Enlight Renewable Energy | 0.03 | 30 per month | 2.39 | 0.25 | 5.47 | (4.00) | 14.49 | |
| BKH | Black Hills | (1.87) | 7 per month | 1.08 | 0.07 | 2.01 | (2.07) | 7.24 | |
| ALE | Allete Inc | (1.67) | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.73 | (0.21) | 2.98 | |
| NJR | NewJersey Resources | 0.03 | 4 per month | 1.04 | (0.02) | 1.64 | (1.92) | 7.11 | |
| SR | Spire Inc | (0.1) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.56 | (2.11) | 4.16 | |
| DTW | DTE Energy Co | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.66 | (0.11) | 0.84 | (0.92) | 3.31 | |
| NWE | NorthWestern | 1.09 | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0.06 | 1.78 | (2.21) | 6.73 | |
| EE | Excelerate Energy | (0.14) | 10 per month | 1.84 | 0.15 | 3.54 | (2.93) | 10.67 | |
| PCG | PGE Corp | 0.05 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.79 | (2.31) | 6.66 | |
| RNW | Renew Energy Global | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.78 | (3.95) | 29.93 |
Other Forecasting Options for Algonquin Power
For every potential investor in Algonquin, whether a beginner or expert, Algonquin Power's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Algonquin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Algonquin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Algonquin Power's price trends.Algonquin Power Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Algonquin Power stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Algonquin Power could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Algonquin Power by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Algonquin Power Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Algonquin Power stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Algonquin Power shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Algonquin Power stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Algonquin Power Utilities entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Algonquin Power Risk Indicators
The analysis of Algonquin Power's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Algonquin Power's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting algonquin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Variance | 3.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Algonquin Power
The number of cover stories for Algonquin Power depends on current market conditions and Algonquin Power's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Algonquin Power is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Algonquin Power's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Algonquin Power Short Properties
Algonquin Power's future price predictability will typically decrease when Algonquin Power's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Algonquin Power Utilities often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Algonquin Power's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Algonquin Power's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 731.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 34.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Algonquin Power to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Multi-Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Algonquin Power. If investors know Algonquin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Algonquin Power listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Dividend Share 0.26 | Earnings Share 0.07 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.017 |
The market value of Algonquin Power Utilities is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Algonquin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Algonquin Power's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Algonquin Power's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Algonquin Power's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Algonquin Power's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Algonquin Power's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Algonquin Power is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Algonquin Power's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.