Arena Group Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AREN Stock | USD 3.84 0.14 3.52% |
Arena Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Arena Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Arena Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Arena Group fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Arena Group's share price is approaching 39. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Arena Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.19 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.73 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.91 | Wall Street Target Price 12 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.656 |
Using Arena Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arena Group Holdings from the perspective of Arena Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arena Group using Arena Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arena using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arena Group's stock price.
Arena Group Implied Volatility | 1.96 |
Arena Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arena Group Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arena Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arena Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arena Group's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arena Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.36. Arena Group after-hype prediction price | USD 3.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arena Group to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Arena Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arena Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Arena Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Arena Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arena Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to Arena Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arena Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arena. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Arena Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arena price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arena using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arena charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arena Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arena Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arena Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arena Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arena Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arena Group | Arena Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arena Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arena Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arena Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 7.89, respectively. We have considered Arena Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arena Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arena Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7929 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0349 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1393 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.033 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.3554 |
Predictive Modules for Arena Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arena Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arena Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arena Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arena Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arena Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arena Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arena Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arena Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arena Group's historical news coverage. Arena Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 7.90, respectively. We have considered Arena Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arena Group is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arena Group Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arena Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arena Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arena Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arena Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.53 | 4.05 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.84 | 3.85 | 0.26 |
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Arena Group Hype Timeline
Arena Group Holdings is presently traded for 3.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Arena is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.85 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is forecasted to be 0.26%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.53%. The volatility of related hype on Arena Group is about 6428.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.81. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 125.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (100.71 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 77.17 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arena Group to cross-verify your projections.Arena Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arena Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arena Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Arena Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arena Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UPXI | Upexi Inc | (0.11) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 11.51 | (10.16) | 30.97 | |
| TRVG | Trivago NV | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.23 | (4.37) | 11.25 | |
| NEXN | Nexxen International | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.08 | (3.09) | 24.48 | |
| THRY | Thryv Holdings | 0.14 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 4.32 | (6.80) | 31.80 | |
| TRUE | TrueCar | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.81 | 0.01 | 4.74 | (3.48) | 12.10 | |
| CURI | Curiositystream | (0.03) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.53 | (6.20) | 33.31 | |
| SSP | E W Scripps | (0.24) | 12 per month | 3.74 | 0.09 | 7.52 | (6.60) | 53.49 | |
| ATNI | ATN International | 0.08 | 7 per month | 1.75 | 0.18 | 5.16 | (3.13) | 22.28 | |
| RDCM | Radcom | (0.22) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.05 | (2.72) | 10.91 | |
| ZH | Zhihu Inc ADR | (0.09) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.10 | (4.82) | 21.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arena Group
For every potential investor in Arena, whether a beginner or expert, Arena Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arena Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arena. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arena Group's price trends.Arena Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arena Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arena Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arena Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arena Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arena Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arena Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arena Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arena Group Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.84 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.84 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.85 |
Arena Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arena Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arena Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arena stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.49 | |||
| Variance | 20.13 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arena Group
The number of cover stories for Arena Group depends on current market conditions and Arena Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arena Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arena Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arena Group Short Properties
Arena Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arena Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arena Group Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arena Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arena Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arena Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Will Movies & Entertainment sector continue expanding? Could Arena diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arena Group. If investors know Arena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Arena Group data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Arena Group Holdings using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Arena Group's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Arena Group's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Arena Group's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Arena Group represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Arena Group's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.