Ark Restaurants Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ARKR Stock | USD 6.54 0.02 0.31% |
Ark Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ark Restaurants' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ark Restaurants' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ark Restaurants fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Ark Restaurants' share price is approaching 46. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ark Restaurants, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.31 | Wall Street Target Price 17 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) |
Using Ark Restaurants hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ark Restaurants Corp from the perspective of Ark Restaurants response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Ark Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ark Restaurants Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.07.Ark Restaurants Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ark Restaurants' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ark. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ark can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ark Restaurants Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ark Restaurants' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ark Restaurants.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ark Restaurants Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.07. Ark Restaurants after-hype prediction price | USD 6.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ark Restaurants to cross-verify your projections. Ark Restaurants Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ark price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ark using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ark charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ark Restaurants Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ark Restaurants Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ark Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ark Restaurants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ark Restaurants Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ark Restaurants | Ark Restaurants Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ark Restaurants Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ark Restaurants' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ark Restaurants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.34 and 8.74, respectively. We have considered Ark Restaurants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ark Restaurants stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ark Restaurants stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2701 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0142 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0996 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.0734 |
Predictive Modules for Ark Restaurants
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ark Restaurants Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ark Restaurants After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ark Restaurants at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ark Restaurants or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ark Restaurants, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ark Restaurants Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ark Restaurants' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ark Restaurants' historical news coverage. Ark Restaurants' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.35 and 8.73, respectively. We have considered Ark Restaurants' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ark Restaurants is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ark Restaurants Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ark Restaurants Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ark Restaurants is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ark Restaurants backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ark Restaurants, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 2.20 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.54 | 6.54 | 0.00 |
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Ark Restaurants Hype Timeline
Ark Restaurants Corp is presently traded for 6.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ark is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ark Restaurants is about 2972.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.53. About 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.72. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ark Restaurants Corp recorded a loss per share of 3.18. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of May 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ark Restaurants to cross-verify your projections.Ark Restaurants Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ark Restaurants' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ark Restaurants' future price movements. Getting to know how Ark Restaurants' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ark Restaurants may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NDLS | Noodles Company | (0.15) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 11.11 | (8.75) | 27.57 | |
| ZOOZ | ZOOZ Power Ltd | 0.68 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 10.34 | (10.17) | 65.52 | |
| ROLR | High Roller Technologies | (0.09) | 8 per month | 9.64 | 0.11 | 17.33 | (17.50) | 472.27 | |
| NTRP | NextTrip | 0.11 | 7 per month | 6.47 | 0.03 | 12.30 | (11.69) | 56.46 | |
| MGIH | Millennium Group International | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.52 | (8.55) | 42.24 | |
| SBDS | SBDS | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 14.90 | (14.62) | 50.66 | |
| FAT | FAT Brands | (0.05) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 11.11 | (15.62) | 44.83 | |
| MOGU | MOGU Inc | (0.52) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.36 | (5.81) | 22.31 | |
| BGI | Birks Group | 0.03 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.41 | (4.12) | 27.29 | |
| AZI | Autozi Internet Technology | (0.80) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 21.43 | (17.87) | 88.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ark Restaurants
For every potential investor in Ark, whether a beginner or expert, Ark Restaurants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ark Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ark. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ark Restaurants' price trends.Ark Restaurants Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ark Restaurants stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ark Restaurants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ark Restaurants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ark Restaurants Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ark Restaurants stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ark Restaurants shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ark Restaurants stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ark Restaurants Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ark Restaurants Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ark Restaurants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ark Restaurants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ark stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Variance | 5.13 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ark Restaurants
The number of cover stories for Ark Restaurants depends on current market conditions and Ark Restaurants' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ark Restaurants is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ark Restaurants' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ark Restaurants Short Properties
Ark Restaurants' future price predictability will typically decrease when Ark Restaurants' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ark Restaurants Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ark Restaurants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ark Restaurants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -26 K |
Additional Tools for Ark Stock Analysis
When running Ark Restaurants' price analysis, check to measure Ark Restaurants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ark Restaurants is operating at the current time. Most of Ark Restaurants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ark Restaurants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ark Restaurants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ark Restaurants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.