Academy Sports Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| ASO Stock | USD 56.82 0.21 0.37% |
Academy Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Academy Sports' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Academy Sports' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Academy Sports fundamentals over time.
As of today, The value of RSI of Academy Sports' share price is at 55. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Academy Sports, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.141 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.8852 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.4759 | Wall Street Target Price 59.9444 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.0606 |
Using Academy Sports hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Academy Sports Outdoors from the perspective of Academy Sports response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Academy Sports using Academy Sports' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Academy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Academy Sports' stock price.
Academy Sports Short Interest
An investor who is long Academy Sports may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Academy Sports and may potentially protect profits, hedge Academy Sports with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 48.2512 | Short Percent 0.2099 | Short Ratio 3.84 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.3 M | 50 Day MA 51.3537 |
Academy Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Academy Sports Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 55.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.77.Academy Sports Outdoors Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Academy Sports' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Academy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Academy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Academy Sports Outdoors. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Academy Sports' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Academy Sports.
Academy Sports Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
Academy Sports' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Academy Sports Outdoors stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Academy Sports' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Academy Sports stock will not fluctuate a lot when Academy Sports' options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Academy Sports Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 55.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.77.
Academy Sports after-hype prediction price | USD 56.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Academy Sports to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Academy contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Academy Sports Outdoors will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Academy Sports trading at USD 56.82, that is roughly USD 0.022 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Academy Sports' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Academy Sports Outdoors options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Academy Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Academy Sports' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Academy Sports' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Academy Sports stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Academy Sports' open interest, investors have to compare it to Academy Sports' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Academy Sports is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Academy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Academy Sports Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Academy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Academy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Academy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Academy Sports Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Academy Sports Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 55.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83, mean absolute percentage error of 5.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Academy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Academy Sports' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Academy Sports Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Academy Sports | Academy Sports Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Academy Sports Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Academy Sports' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Academy Sports' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 53.11 and 58.79, respectively. We have considered Academy Sports' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Academy Sports stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Academy Sports stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8127 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8322 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0364 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 111.7656 |
Predictive Modules for Academy Sports
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Academy Sports Outdoors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Academy Sports' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Academy Sports After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Academy Sports at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Academy Sports or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Academy Sports, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Academy Sports Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Academy Sports' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Academy Sports' historical news coverage. Academy Sports' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.00 and 59.64, respectively. We have considered Academy Sports' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Academy Sports is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Academy Sports Outdoors is based on 3 months time horizon.
Academy Sports Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Academy Sports is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Academy Sports backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Academy Sports, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.84 | 0.14 | 2.26 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
56.82 | 56.82 | 0.00 |
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Academy Sports Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Academy Sports Outdoors is traded for 56.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -2.26. Academy is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Academy Sports is about 31.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 54.56. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.77. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Academy Sports Outdoors has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.62. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.44. The firm last dividend was issued on the 18th of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Academy Sports to cross-verify your projections.Academy Sports Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Academy Sports' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Academy Sports' future price movements. Getting to know how Academy Sports' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Academy Sports may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RH | RH | 6.88 | 9 per month | 2.79 | 0.10 | 6.59 | (4.89) | 15.48 | |
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts | 2.68 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.75 | (4.37) | 16.72 | |
| ANF | Abercrombie Fitch | (1.62) | 10 per month | 3.43 | 0.11 | 5.90 | (3.84) | 55.23 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | (1.93) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.51 | (3.54) | 10.17 | |
| VC | Visteon Corp | (97.80) | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.85 | (3.53) | 8.62 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (1.56) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.73 | (2.70) | 9.51 | |
| HOG | Harley Davidson | 0.56 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.41 | (3.40) | 8.88 | |
| VSCO | Victorias Secret Co | 2.27 | 13 per month | 2.13 | 0.25 | 5.93 | (4.23) | 22.23 | |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | (0.30) | 8 per month | 1.88 | 0.20 | 5.78 | (3.60) | 19.53 | |
| RRR | Red Rock Resorts | 0.52 | 25 per month | 2.71 | 0 | 3.88 | (3.26) | 13.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Academy Sports
For every potential investor in Academy, whether a beginner or expert, Academy Sports' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Academy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Academy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Academy Sports' price trends.Academy Sports Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Academy Sports stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Academy Sports could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Academy Sports by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Academy Sports Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Academy Sports stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Academy Sports shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Academy Sports stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Academy Sports Outdoors entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Academy Sports Risk Indicators
The analysis of Academy Sports' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Academy Sports' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting academy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Variance | 7.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.45 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Academy Sports
The number of cover stories for Academy Sports depends on current market conditions and Academy Sports' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Academy Sports is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Academy Sports' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Academy Sports Short Properties
Academy Sports' future price predictability will typically decrease when Academy Sports' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Academy Sports Outdoors often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Academy Sports' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Academy Sports' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 73 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 288.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Academy Sports to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Academy Sports. If investors know Academy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Academy Sports listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.141 | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 5.44 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.03 |
The market value of Academy Sports Outdoors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Academy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Academy Sports' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Academy Sports' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Academy Sports' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Academy Sports' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Academy Sports' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Academy Sports is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Academy Sports' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.