Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AUPH Stock | USD 15.21 0.01 0.07% |
Aurinia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 4th of February 2026, The RSI of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' share price is at 51. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.3 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1533 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7817 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.925 | Wall Street Target Price 16.6667 |
Using Aurinia Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aurinia Pharmaceuticals using Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aurinia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Aurinia. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.6304 | Short Percent 0.0725 | Short Ratio 8.54 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.3 M | 50 Day MA 15.4931 |
Aurinia Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 15.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.31.Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aurinia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aurinia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 0.8 |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 15.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.31. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 15.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aurinia contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.05% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Aurinia Pharmaceuticals trading at USD 15.21, that is roughly USD 0.007605 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aurinia Pharmaceuticals options at the current volatility level of 0.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Aurinia Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aurinia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aurinia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aurinia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aurinia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 15.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aurinia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aurinia Pharmaceuticals | Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.13 and 17.29, respectively. We have considered Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1432 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0273 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2552 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0165 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.31 |
Predictive Modules for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aurinia Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.10 and 17.32, respectively. We have considered Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aurinia Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.08 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.21 | 15.21 | 0.00 |
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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is presently traded for 15.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Aurinia is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is about 4952.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.22. About 51.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals had 1:50 split on the 23rd of October 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aurinia Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MNKD | MannKind Corp | (0.1) | 15 per month | 2.30 | 0.06 | 4.09 | (3.73) | 18.20 | |
| HRMY | Harmony Biosciences Holdings | 0.37 | 9 per month | 1.57 | 0.17 | 3.61 | (2.28) | 11.30 | |
| NUVB | Nuvation Bio | (0.29) | 9 per month | 4.65 | 0.03 | 7.33 | (5.78) | 68.61 | |
| CLDX | Celldex Therapeutics | 0.53 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 6.44 | (5.57) | 13.96 | |
| JANX | Janux Therapeutics | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.88 | (5.07) | 63.52 | |
| VERA | Vera Therapeutics | (1.01) | 10 per month | 3.05 | 0.14 | 10.77 | (4.62) | 23.44 | |
| ABCL | Abcellera Biologics | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.90 | (8.62) | 22.32 | |
| BHVN | Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding | 1.48 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 10.23 | (7.35) | 40.22 | |
| STOK | Stoke Therapeutics | 0.62 | 10 per month | 4.15 | 0.04 | 8.20 | (7.67) | 22.69 | |
| IMCR | Immunocore Holdings | (1.11) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.73 | (3.78) | 11.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Aurinia, whether a beginner or expert, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aurinia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aurinia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aurinia Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aurinia Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aurinia Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 27955.43 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.02) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.22 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.22 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.73 |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aurinia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Variance | 6.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 146.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 358.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Aurinia Stock please use our How to Invest in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals guide.You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is there potential for Biotechnology market expansion? Will Aurinia introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Aurinia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.3 | Earnings Share 0.56 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.084 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurinia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Aurinia Pharmaceuticals represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.