Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AUPH Stock | USD 8.86 0.01 0.11% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 8.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.27. Aurinia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Aurinia |
Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 Aurinia Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aurinia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 8.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aurinia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.29 and 11.54, respectively. We have considered Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0223 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1571 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0209 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.2694 |
Predictive Modules for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Aurinia, whether a beginner or expert, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aurinia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aurinia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price trends.View Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aurinia Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aurinia Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aurinia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Variance | 7.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Aurinia Pharmaceuticals offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Aurinia Stock please use our How to Invest in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Aurinia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.15) | Revenue Per Share 1.536 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.243 | Return On Assets (0.02) | Return On Equity (0.06) |
The market value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurinia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.