American Express Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| AXP Stock | 28.90 0.50 1.70% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although American Express' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of American Express' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Express fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of American Express' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using American Express hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Express CDR from the perspective of American Express response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of American Express CDR on the next trading day is expected to be 29.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.53. American Express after-hype prediction price | CAD 28.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
American |
American Express Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Express 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of American Express CDR on the next trading day is expected to be 29.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Express' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Express Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Express | American Express Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
American Express Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Express' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Express' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.83 and 30.97, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Express stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Express stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.019 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0303 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5707 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.5325 |
Predictive Modules for American Express
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Express CDR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Express After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Express at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Express or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Express, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Express Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Express' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Express' historical news coverage. American Express' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.33 and 30.47, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Express is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Express CDR is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Express Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Express is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Express backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Express, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
28.90 | 28.90 | 0.00 |
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American Express Hype Timeline
American Express CDR is presently traded for 28.90on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. American is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Express is about 336.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.89. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.89. American Express CDR had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Express to cross-verify your projections.American Express Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Express' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Express' future price movements. Getting to know how American Express' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Express may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VISA | Visa Inc CDR | (0.21) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.91 | (1.96) | 10.90 | |
| MA | Mastercard CDR | (0.57) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.22 | (2.12) | 8.19 | |
| AXP | AMERICAN EXPRESS CDR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.51 | (2.61) | 7.83 | |
| AXP | American Express CDR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.51 | (2.73) | 7.83 | |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings CDR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 1.95 | (2.98) | 24.52 | |
| GSY | goeasy | (2.97) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.30 | (3.53) | 11.54 | |
| PRL | Propel Holdings | (0.46) | 4 per month | 2.50 | 0.07 | 6.07 | (4.45) | 13.98 | |
| ECN | ECN Capital Corp | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.66 | (0.66) | 13.31 | |
| EPF | Everyday People Financial | 0.02 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.36 | (8.82) | 28.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Express
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Express' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Express' price trends.American Express Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Express stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Express could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Express by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Express Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Express stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Express shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Express stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Express CDR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Express Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Express' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Express' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Variance | 2.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Express
The number of cover stories for American Express depends on current market conditions and American Express' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Express is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Express' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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American Express Short Properties
American Express' future price predictability will typically decrease when American Express' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Express CDR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 686 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 46.9 B |
Other Information on Investing in American Stock
American Express financial ratios help investors to determine whether American Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in American with respect to the benefits of owning American Express security.