Australian Unity Preferred Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AYUPA Preferred Stock | 82.55 0.15 0.18% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Australian Unity Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 82.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.59. Australian Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Australian Unity stock prices and determine the direction of Australian Unity Ltd's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Australian Unity's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Australian Unity Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Australian Unity Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 82.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Australian Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Australian Unity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Australian Unity Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
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Australian Unity Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Australian Unity's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Australian Unity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 81.99 and 83.13, respectively. We have considered Australian Unity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Australian Unity preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Australian Unity preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0711 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3151 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.5901 |
Predictive Modules for Australian Unity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Australian Unity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Australian Unity
For every potential investor in Australian, whether a beginner or expert, Australian Unity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Australian Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Australian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Australian Unity's price trends.Australian Unity Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Australian Unity preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Australian Unity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Australian Unity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Australian Unity Technical and Predictive Analytics
The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Australian Unity's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Australian Unity's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Australian Unity Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Australian Unity preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Australian Unity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Australian Unity preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Australian Unity Ltd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Australian Unity Risk Indicators
The analysis of Australian Unity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Australian Unity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting australian preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3712 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3675 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5729 | |||
| Variance | 0.3282 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3565 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.135 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.43) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Australian Preferred Stock
Australian Unity financial ratios help investors to determine whether Australian Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Australian with respect to the benefits of owning Australian Unity security.