Alibaba Group Stock Forecast - Relative Strength Index
| BABA Stock | USD 177.18 8.51 5.05% |
Alibaba Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alibaba Group stock prices and determine the direction of Alibaba Group Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alibaba Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the value of rsi of Alibaba Group's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 15.3092 | EPS Estimate Current Year 44.0555 | EPS Estimate Next Year 61.9651 | Wall Street Target Price 195.4812 |
Using Alibaba Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alibaba Group Holding from the perspective of Alibaba Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alibaba Group using Alibaba Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alibaba using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alibaba Group's stock price.
Alibaba Group Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Alibaba Group's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alibaba. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alibaba Group stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 139.0173 | Short Percent 0.023 | Short Ratio 5.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 44.7 M | 50 Day MA 156.792 |
Alibaba Group Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alibaba Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alibaba. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alibaba can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alibaba Group Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Alibaba Group Implied Volatility | 0.55 |
Alibaba Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alibaba Group Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alibaba Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alibaba Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alibaba Group's options are near their expiration.
Alibaba Group after-hype prediction price | USD 177.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alibaba Group to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alibaba contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alibaba Group Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0344% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Alibaba Group trading at USD 177.18, that is roughly USD 0.0609 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alibaba Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alibaba Group Holding options at the current volatility level of 0.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Alibaba Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alibaba Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alibaba Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alibaba Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alibaba Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alibaba Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alibaba Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alibaba. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Alibaba Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alibaba price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alibaba using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alibaba charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Check Alibaba Group Volatility | Backtest Alibaba Group | Information Ratio |
Alibaba Group Trading Date Momentum
| On January 23 2026 Alibaba Group Holding was traded for 177.18 at the closing time. The top price for the day was 177.18 and the lowest listed price was 168.67 . There was no trading activity during the period 0.0. Lack of trading volume on January 23, 2026 did not affect price variability. The overall trading delta against the current closing price is 4.80% . |
| Compare Alibaba Group to competition |
Other Forecasting Options for Alibaba Group
For every potential investor in Alibaba, whether a beginner or expert, Alibaba Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alibaba Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alibaba. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alibaba Group's price trends.Alibaba Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alibaba Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alibaba Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alibaba Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alibaba Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alibaba Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alibaba Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alibaba Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alibaba Group Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alibaba Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alibaba Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alibaba Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alibaba stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Variance | 7.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alibaba Group
The number of cover stories for Alibaba Group depends on current market conditions and Alibaba Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alibaba Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alibaba Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alibaba Group Short Properties
Alibaba Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alibaba Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alibaba Group Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alibaba Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alibaba Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 464.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alibaba Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alibaba Group. If investors know Alibaba will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alibaba Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | Dividend Share 7.619 | Earnings Share 7.52 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.048 |
The market value of Alibaba Group Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alibaba that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alibaba Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alibaba Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alibaba Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alibaba Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alibaba Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alibaba Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alibaba Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.