Alibaba Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Alibaba Group is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alibaba Group Holding value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Alibaba Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 9.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.81.

Alibaba Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Alibaba Group Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alibaba Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alibaba Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alibaba Group Holding. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Alibaba Group. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alibaba Group Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 5.38 10.50 15.62 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 4.24 9.36 14.48 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alibaba Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alibaba Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alibaba Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alibaba Group Holding.

Other Forecasting Options for Alibaba Group

For every potential investor in Alibaba, whether a beginner or expert, Alibaba Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alibaba Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alibaba. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alibaba Group's price trends.

Alibaba Group Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Alibaba Group Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alibaba Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alibaba Group's current price.

Alibaba Group Market Strength Events

Alibaba Group Risk Indicators

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alibaba Pink Sheet

When determining whether Alibaba Group Holding offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alibaba Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alibaba Group Holding Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alibaba Group Holding Stock:

How To Invest In Alibaba Details

Is Alibaba Pink Sheet a good investment? Details

What is Alibaba Group's Net Worth? Details

Largest Broadline Retail Companies View

Largest Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail Companies View

Altman Z Score Details

Intrinsic Valuation Details

Financial Analysis Details

Buy or Sell Advice Details

Technical Analysis Details

Please note, there is a significant difference between Alibaba Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alibaba Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alibaba Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.