Alibaba Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BABAF Stock | USD 10.85 0.11 1.02% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 10.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.43. Alibaba Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alibaba Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Alibaba |
Alibaba Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 10.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alibaba Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alibaba Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alibaba Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Alibaba Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alibaba Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alibaba Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.57 and 16.13, respectively. We have considered Alibaba Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alibaba Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alibaba Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9615 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0224 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4004 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0341 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.4267 |
Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alibaba Group Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alibaba Group
For every potential investor in Alibaba, whether a beginner or expert, Alibaba Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alibaba Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alibaba. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alibaba Group's price trends.Alibaba Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alibaba Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alibaba Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alibaba Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alibaba Group Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alibaba Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alibaba Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Alibaba Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alibaba Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alibaba Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alibaba Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Alibaba Group Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.055 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.11 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.71 |
Alibaba Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alibaba Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alibaba Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alibaba pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.71 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.2 | |||
| Variance | 27.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 29.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 20.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alibaba Pink Sheet
When determining whether Alibaba Group Holding offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alibaba Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alibaba Group Holding Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alibaba Group Holding Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alibaba Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.