Alibaba Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Regression

BABAF Stock  USD 10.75  0.14  1.32%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 12.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.71. Alibaba Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alibaba Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Alibaba Group price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Alibaba Group Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 12.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04, mean absolute percentage error of 1.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alibaba Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alibaba Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alibaba Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alibaba GroupAlibaba Group Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alibaba Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alibaba Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alibaba Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.09 and 17.32, respectively. We have considered Alibaba Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.75
12.20
Expected Value
17.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alibaba Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alibaba Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5715
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0444
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0899
SAESum of the absolute errors63.7099
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Alibaba Group Holding historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alibaba Group Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.3810.5015.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.249.3614.48
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alibaba Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alibaba Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alibaba Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alibaba Group Holding.

Other Forecasting Options for Alibaba Group

For every potential investor in Alibaba, whether a beginner or expert, Alibaba Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alibaba Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alibaba. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alibaba Group's price trends.

Alibaba Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alibaba Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alibaba Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alibaba Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alibaba Group Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alibaba Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alibaba Group's current price.

Alibaba Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alibaba Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alibaba Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alibaba Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Alibaba Group Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alibaba Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alibaba Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alibaba Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alibaba pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alibaba Pink Sheet

When determining whether Alibaba Group Holding offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alibaba Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alibaba Group Holding Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alibaba Group Holding Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alibaba Group to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alibaba Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alibaba Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alibaba Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.