GraniteShares Gold Etf Forward View
| BAR Etf | USD 47.38 1.29 2.65% |
GraniteShares Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of GraniteShares Gold's share price is below 20 suggesting that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using GraniteShares Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GraniteShares Gold Trust from the perspective of GraniteShares Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GraniteShares Gold Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 45.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.35. GraniteShares Gold after-hype prediction price | USD 47.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
GraniteShares | Build AI portfolio with GraniteShares Etf |
GraniteShares Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GraniteShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GraniteShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze GraniteShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GraniteShares Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GraniteShares Gold Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 45.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 1.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GraniteShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GraniteShares Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GraniteShares Gold Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GraniteShares Gold | GraniteShares Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
GraniteShares Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GraniteShares Gold's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GraniteShares Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.43 and 47.68, respectively. We have considered GraniteShares Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GraniteShares Gold etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GraniteShares Gold etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0982 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6993 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0154 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.3545 |
Predictive Modules for GraniteShares Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GraniteShares Gold Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GraniteShares Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GraniteShares Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GraniteShares Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of GraniteShares Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GraniteShares Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GraniteShares Gold's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GraniteShares Gold's historical news coverage. GraniteShares Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.34 and 49.60, respectively. We have considered GraniteShares Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GraniteShares Gold is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GraniteShares Gold Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
GraniteShares Gold Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as GraniteShares Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GraniteShares Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GraniteShares Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 2.13 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 3 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
47.38 | 47.47 | 0.19 |
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GraniteShares Gold Hype Timeline
On the 6th of February GraniteShares Gold Trust is traded for 47.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. GraniteShares is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 47.47 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on GraniteShares Gold is about 1109.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.33. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares Gold to cross-verify your projections.GraniteShares Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GraniteShares Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GraniteShares Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how GraniteShares Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GraniteShares Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DBC | Invesco DB Commodity | 0.13 | 2 per month | 1.04 | 0.1 | 1.44 | (1.24) | 5.52 | |
| IBDX | iShares Trust | (0.07) | 5 per month | 0.08 | (0.17) | 0.32 | (0.28) | 0.71 | |
| IYK | iShares Consumer Staples | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.41 | 0.17 | 1.48 | (0.96) | 3.51 | |
| CONY | YieldMax N Option | 0.17 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 4.18 | (6.36) | 11.51 | |
| LIT | Global X Lithium | (0.57) | 8 per month | 1.82 | 0.06 | 2.61 | (3.19) | 8.60 | |
| PDP | Invesco DWA Momentum | 1.40 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 1.90 | (3.20) | 6.72 | |
| VTWG | Vanguard Russell 2000 | (2.84) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 1.90 | (2.13) | 5.53 | |
| DHS | WisdomTree High Dividend | (0.16) | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1.43 | (0.78) | 2.35 | |
| ICOW | Pacer Developed Markets | (0.04) | 2 per month | 0.65 | 0.17 | 1.32 | (1.16) | 3.33 | |
| EQTY | Kovitz Core Equity | 0.04 | 4 per month | 0.73 | 0.04 | 1.28 | (1.37) | 4.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for GraniteShares Gold
For every potential investor in GraniteShares, whether a beginner or expert, GraniteShares Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GraniteShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GraniteShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GraniteShares Gold's price trends.GraniteShares Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GraniteShares Gold etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GraniteShares Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GraniteShares Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GraniteShares Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GraniteShares Gold etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GraniteShares Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GraniteShares Gold etf market strength indicators, traders can identify GraniteShares Gold Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 27328.76 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.21) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 47.79 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 47.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.29) |
GraniteShares Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of GraniteShares Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GraniteShares Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graniteshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Variance | 4.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GraniteShares Gold
The number of cover stories for GraniteShares Gold depends on current market conditions and GraniteShares Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GraniteShares Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GraniteShares Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
The market value of GraniteShares Gold Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GraniteShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GraniteShares Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GraniteShares Gold's true underlying value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Because GraniteShares Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GraniteShares Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between GraniteShares Gold's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding GraniteShares Gold should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, GraniteShares Gold's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.