GraniteShares Gold Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BAR Etf | USD 26.25 0.21 0.81% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GraniteShares Gold Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 26.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.01. GraniteShares Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
GraniteShares |
GraniteShares Gold Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GraniteShares Gold Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 26.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GraniteShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GraniteShares Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GraniteShares Gold Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GraniteShares Gold | GraniteShares Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
GraniteShares Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GraniteShares Gold's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GraniteShares Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.25 and 27.25, respectively. We have considered GraniteShares Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GraniteShares Gold etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GraniteShares Gold etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6319 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0268 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2002 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0077 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.01 |
Predictive Modules for GraniteShares Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GraniteShares Gold Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for GraniteShares Gold
For every potential investor in GraniteShares, whether a beginner or expert, GraniteShares Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GraniteShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GraniteShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GraniteShares Gold's price trends.GraniteShares Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GraniteShares Gold etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GraniteShares Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GraniteShares Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GraniteShares Gold Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GraniteShares Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GraniteShares Gold's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GraniteShares Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GraniteShares Gold etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GraniteShares Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GraniteShares Gold etf market strength indicators, traders can identify GraniteShares Gold Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2873.21 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.909091 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 26.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.21 |
GraniteShares Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of GraniteShares Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GraniteShares Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graniteshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.741 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9878 | |||
| Variance | 0.9758 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.03 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with GraniteShares Gold
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if GraniteShares Gold position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in GraniteShares Gold will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with GraniteShares Etf
| 1.0 | GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | PairCorr |
| 1.0 | IAU | iShares Gold Trust | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | SLV | iShares Silver Trust | PairCorr |
| 1.0 | GLDM | SPDR Gold MiniShares | PairCorr |
| 1.0 | SGOL | abrdn Physical Gold | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to GraniteShares Gold could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace GraniteShares Gold when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back GraniteShares Gold - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling GraniteShares Gold Trust to buy it.
The correlation of GraniteShares Gold is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as GraniteShares Gold moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if GraniteShares Gold Trust moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for GraniteShares Gold can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
The market value of GraniteShares Gold Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GraniteShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GraniteShares Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GraniteShares Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GraniteShares Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GraniteShares Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GraniteShares Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GraniteShares Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GraniteShares Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.