Battalion Oil Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BATL Stock | USD 3.51 0.01 0.29% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Battalion Oil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.57. Battalion Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Battalion Oil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Battalion Oil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Battalion Oil fundamentals over time.
Battalion |
Battalion Oil Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Battalion Oil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Battalion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Battalion Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Battalion Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
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Battalion Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Battalion Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Battalion Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 20.77, respectively. We have considered Battalion Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Battalion Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Battalion Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.405 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -5.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1928 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0461 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.57 |
Predictive Modules for Battalion Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Battalion Oil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Battalion Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Battalion Oil
For every potential investor in Battalion, whether a beginner or expert, Battalion Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Battalion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Battalion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Battalion Oil's price trends.Battalion Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Battalion Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Battalion Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Battalion Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Battalion Oil Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Battalion Oil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Battalion Oil's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Battalion Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Battalion Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Battalion Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Battalion Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Battalion Oil Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2764.87 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0625 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.47 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.065 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Battalion Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Battalion Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Battalion Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting battalion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 7.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 16.99 | |||
| Variance | 288.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 101.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 59.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Battalion Oil. If investors know Battalion will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Battalion Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.127 | Earnings Share (0.38) | Revenue Per Share 11.635 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) | Return On Assets 0.0709 |
The market value of Battalion Oil Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Battalion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Battalion Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Battalion Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Battalion Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Battalion Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Battalion Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Battalion Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Battalion Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.