Battalion Oil Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| BATL Stock | USD 3.81 1.18 23.65% |
Battalion Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Battalion Oil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Battalion Oil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Battalion Oil fundamentals over time.
The value of relative strength index of Battalion Oil's stock price is about 67 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Battalion, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.127 | Wall Street Target Price 18.6 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
Using Battalion Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Battalion Oil Corp from the perspective of Battalion Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Battalion Oil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.27. Battalion Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 4.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Battalion | Build AI portfolio with Battalion Stock |
Battalion Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Battalion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Battalion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Battalion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Battalion Oil Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Battalion Oil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Battalion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Battalion Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Battalion Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Battalion Oil | Battalion Oil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Battalion Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Battalion Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Battalion Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 31.61, respectively. We have considered Battalion Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Battalion Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Battalion Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5589 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0675 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1378 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0519 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.27 |
Predictive Modules for Battalion Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Battalion Oil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Battalion Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Battalion Oil After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Battalion Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Battalion Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Battalion Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Battalion Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Battalion Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Battalion Oil's historical news coverage. Battalion Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.21 and 31.95, respectively. We have considered Battalion Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Battalion Oil is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Battalion Oil Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Battalion Oil Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Battalion Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Battalion Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Battalion Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
3.80 | 27.80 | 0.34 | 0.10 | 5 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.81 | 4.15 | 8.92 |
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Battalion Oil Hype Timeline
Battalion Oil Corp is currently traded for 3.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. Battalion is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.15 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is forecasted to be 8.92%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 3.8%. The volatility of related hype on Battalion Oil is about 106923.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.91. The company has return on total asset (ROA) of 0.0139 % which means that it generated a profit of $0.0139 on every $100 spent on assets. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows a return on stockholder's equity (ROE) of (0.0613) %, meaning that it created substantial loss on money invested by shareholders. Battalion Oil's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Battalion Oil manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. The value of Return On Tangible Assets is estimated to slide to -0.09. The value of Return On Capital Employed is expected to slide to -0.04. At this time, Battalion Oil's Non Currrent Assets Other are quite stable compared to the past year. Debt To Assets is expected to rise to 0.63 this year, although the value of Total Assets will most likely fall to about 470.9 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Battalion Oil to cross-verify your projections.Battalion Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Battalion Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Battalion Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how Battalion Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Battalion Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EONR | EON Resources | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.09 | (7.27) | 22.44 | |
| MXC | Mexco Energy | 0.02 | 6 per month | 3.43 | 0.08 | 7.03 | (7.22) | 16.16 | |
| BANL | CBL International Limited | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.65 | (5.71) | 23.38 | |
| CKX | CKX Lands | 0.30 | 7 per month | 2.18 | 0.01 | 3.61 | (3.43) | 13.77 | |
| TMDE | TMD Energy Limited | 0.03 | 9 per month | 6.40 | 0.03 | 8.00 | (10.87) | 160.91 | |
| BRN | Barnwell Industries | 0.02 | 8 per month | 3.39 | 0.01 | 7.38 | (5.22) | 19.84 | |
| PN | Skycorp Solar Group | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.33 | (7.89) | 39.11 | |
| NINE | Nine Energy Service | (0.03) | 9 per month | 7.48 | 0.03 | 17.02 | (11.11) | 40.03 | |
| TPET | Trio Petroleum Corp | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.32 | (6.80) | 32.43 | |
| SKYQ | Sky Quarry | (0.05) | 8 per month | 8.64 | 0.03 | 17.65 | (14.29) | 125.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Battalion Oil
For every potential investor in Battalion, whether a beginner or expert, Battalion Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Battalion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Battalion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Battalion Oil's price trends.Battalion Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Battalion Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Battalion Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Battalion Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Battalion Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Battalion Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Battalion Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Battalion Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Battalion Oil Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Battalion Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Battalion Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Battalion Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting battalion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 8.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 26.59 | |||
| Variance | 706.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (12.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Battalion Oil
The number of cover stories for Battalion Oil depends on current market conditions and Battalion Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Battalion Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Battalion Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Battalion Oil Short Properties
Battalion Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Battalion Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Battalion Oil Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Battalion Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Battalion Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Battalion Oil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Battalion Oil. Projected growth potential of Battalion fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Battalion Oil assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.127 | Earnings Share (3.36) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Battalion Oil Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Battalion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Battalion Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Battalion Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Battalion Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Battalion Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Battalion Oil's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Battalion Oil should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Battalion Oil's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.