Bank Central Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BBCA Stock  IDR 10,175  325.00  3.30%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank Central Asia on the next trading day is expected to be 10,162 with a mean absolute deviation of 106.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,468. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Bank Central simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Bank Central Asia are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Bank Central Asia prices get older.

Bank Central Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank Central Asia on the next trading day is expected to be 10,162 with a mean absolute deviation of 106.03, mean absolute percentage error of 16,609, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,468.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Central's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank Central Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bank Central Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank Central's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Central's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10,161 and 10,163, respectively. We have considered Bank Central's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10,175
10,161
Downside
10,162
Expected Value
10,163
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Central stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Central stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.8282
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 2.2874
MADMean absolute deviation106.0264
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0102
SAESum of the absolute errors6467.6118
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Bank Central Asia forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Bank Central observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bank Central

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Central Asia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10,17410,17510,176
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9,5549,55511,192
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9,80110,01010,220
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bank Central

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Central's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Central's price trends.

Bank Central Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Central stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Central could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Central by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank Central Asia Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank Central's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank Central's current price.

Bank Central Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Central stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Central shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Central stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Central Asia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank Central Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank Central's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Central's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Bank Stock

Bank Central financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank Central security.