Bread Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| BFH Stock | USD 68.79 2.22 3.13% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bread Financial Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 77.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 204.11. Bread Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bread Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength indicator of Bread Financial's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 97.039 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3346 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.2687 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.5321 | Wall Street Target Price 80.0667 |
Using Bread Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bread Financial Holdings from the perspective of Bread Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Bread Financial using Bread Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Bread using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Bread Financial's stock price.
Bread Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Bread Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Bread. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Bread Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 60.5214 | Short Percent 0.1242 | Short Ratio 5.97 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.3 M | 50 Day MA 71.1768 |
Bread Financial Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Bread Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bread. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bread can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bread Financial Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Bread Financial Implied Volatility | 0.59 |
Bread Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bread Financial Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bread Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bread Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bread Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bread Financial Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 77.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 204.11. Bread Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 70.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bread Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Bread contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Bread Financial Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0369% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Bread Financial trading at USD 68.79, that is roughly USD 0.0254 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Bread Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Bread Financial Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.59%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Bread Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bread Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bread Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bread Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bread Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bread Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bread Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bread. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Bread Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bread price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bread using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bread charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bread Financial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Bread Financial Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 77.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.35, mean absolute percentage error of 15.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 204.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bread Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bread Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bread Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bread Financial | Bread Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bread Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bread Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bread Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 75.48 and 80.25, respectively. We have considered Bread Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bread Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bread Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8695 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.3461 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0473 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 204.1091 |
Predictive Modules for Bread Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bread Financial Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bread Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bread Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bread Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bread Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bread Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bread Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bread Financial's historical news coverage. Bread Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 67.86 and 72.64, respectively. We have considered Bread Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bread Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bread Financial Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bread Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bread Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bread Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bread Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.39 | 0.44 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
68.79 | 70.25 | 0.79 |
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Bread Financial Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Bread Financial Holdings is traded for 68.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.44, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Bread is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 70.25 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 65.3%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.79%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Bread Financial is about 773.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 68.83. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.84 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 277 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.51 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bread Financial to cross-verify your projections.Bread Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bread Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bread Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Bread Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bread Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WU | Western Union Co | (0.22) | 10 per month | 1.51 | 0.07 | 3.88 | (2.52) | 13.49 | |
| ENVA | Enova International | 3.81 | 10 per month | 1.30 | 0.20 | 3.45 | (2.81) | 14.60 | |
| WSBC | WesBanco | (0.02) | 11 per month | 1.11 | 0.11 | 2.95 | (1.68) | 6.69 | |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings | (0.36) | 15 per month | 1.78 | 0.02 | 2.16 | (2.55) | 12.17 | |
| BHF | Brighthouse Financial | (0.13) | 12 per month | 0.72 | 0.11 | 1.33 | (1.28) | 31.02 | |
| WSFS | WSFS Financial | (0.34) | 7 per month | 0.89 | 0.10 | 2.40 | (1.39) | 6.60 | |
| TBBK | The Bancorp | 0.42 | 9 per month | 3.21 | (0.03) | 4.18 | (2.96) | 19.50 | |
| ETOR | eToro Group | (0.10) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.74 | (4.89) | 14.35 | |
| KMPR | Kemper | (0.28) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.31 | (3.07) | 14.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bread Financial
For every potential investor in Bread, whether a beginner or expert, Bread Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bread Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bread. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bread Financial's price trends.Bread Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bread Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bread Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bread Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bread Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bread Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bread Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bread Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bread Financial Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bread Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bread Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bread Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bread stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Variance | 6.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.58) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bread Financial
The number of cover stories for Bread Financial depends on current market conditions and Bread Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bread Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bread Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bread Financial Short Properties
Bread Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bread Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bread Financial Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bread Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bread Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bread Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Consumer Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bread Financial. If investors know Bread will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bread Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 97.039 | Dividend Share 0.84 | Earnings Share 9.88 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 |
The market value of Bread Financial Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bread that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bread Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bread Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bread Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bread Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bread Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bread Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bread Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.