Saul Centers Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BFS Stock  USD 39.78  0.08  0.20%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Saul Centers on the next trading day is expected to be 38.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.90. Saul Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Saul Centers' Payables Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 6.18 in 2024, despite the fact that Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to (17.79). . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 19.5 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 27.6 M in 2024.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Saul Centers' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1996-06-30
Previous Quarter
6.9 M
Current Value
7.2 M
Quarterly Volatility
12.3 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Saul Centers is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Saul Centers value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Saul Centers Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Saul Centers on the next trading day is expected to be 38.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.90.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Saul Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Saul Centers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Saul Centers Stock Forecast Pattern

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Saul Centers Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Saul Centers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Saul Centers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.85 and 40.10, respectively. We have considered Saul Centers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
39.78
38.97
Expected Value
40.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Saul Centers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Saul Centers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.6654
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4016
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.01
SAESum of the absolute errors24.8989
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Saul Centers. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Saul Centers. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Saul Centers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saul Centers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
38.6639.7840.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
39.4040.5241.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
38.6240.2241.83
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
37.3141.0045.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Saul Centers. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Saul Centers' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Saul Centers' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Saul Centers.

Other Forecasting Options for Saul Centers

For every potential investor in Saul, whether a beginner or expert, Saul Centers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Saul Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Saul. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Saul Centers' price trends.

Saul Centers Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Saul Centers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Saul Centers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Saul Centers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Saul Centers Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Saul Centers' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Saul Centers' current price.

Saul Centers Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Saul Centers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Saul Centers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Saul Centers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Saul Centers entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Saul Centers Risk Indicators

The analysis of Saul Centers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Saul Centers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting saul stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Saul Stock Analysis

When running Saul Centers' price analysis, check to measure Saul Centers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Saul Centers is operating at the current time. Most of Saul Centers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Saul Centers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Saul Centers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Saul Centers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.