Bar Harbor Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BHB Stock | USD 33.91 0.20 0.59% |
Bar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bar Harbor stock prices and determine the direction of Bar Harbor Bankshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bar Harbor's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Bar Harbor's share price is at 59 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bar Harbor, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.865 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.565 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.775 | Wall Street Target Price 36.5 |
Using Bar Harbor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bar Harbor Bankshares from the perspective of Bar Harbor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Bar Harbor using Bar Harbor's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Bar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Bar Harbor's stock price.
Bar Harbor Implied Volatility | 1.03 |
Bar Harbor's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bar Harbor Bankshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bar Harbor's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bar Harbor stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bar Harbor's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bar Harbor Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 33.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.19. Bar Harbor after-hype prediction price | USD 33.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bar Harbor to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Bar contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Bar Harbor Bankshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0644% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Bar Harbor trading at USD 33.91, that is roughly USD 0.0218 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Bar Harbor's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Bar Harbor Bankshares options at the current volatility level of 1.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Bar Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bar Harbor's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bar Harbor's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bar Harbor stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bar Harbor's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bar Harbor's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bar Harbor is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Bar Harbor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bar Harbor Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bar Harbor Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 33.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bar Harbor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bar Harbor Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bar Harbor | Bar Harbor Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bar Harbor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bar Harbor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bar Harbor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.15 and 35.65, respectively. We have considered Bar Harbor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bar Harbor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bar Harbor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8819 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0913 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3965 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.1865 |
Predictive Modules for Bar Harbor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bar Harbor Bankshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bar Harbor After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bar Harbor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bar Harbor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bar Harbor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bar Harbor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bar Harbor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bar Harbor's historical news coverage. Bar Harbor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.19 and 35.69, respectively. We have considered Bar Harbor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bar Harbor is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bar Harbor Bankshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bar Harbor Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bar Harbor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bar Harbor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bar Harbor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.75 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
33.91 | 33.94 | 0.09 |
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Bar Harbor Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January Bar Harbor Bankshares is traded for 33.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Bar is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 33.94 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Bar Harbor is about 866.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.86. The company reported the last year's revenue of 243.34 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 43.54 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 163.4 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bar Harbor to cross-verify your projections.Bar Harbor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bar Harbor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bar Harbor's future price movements. Getting to know how Bar Harbor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bar Harbor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AROW | Arrow Financial | (0.21) | 10 per month | 1.27 | 0.13 | 3.59 | (2.89) | 9.60 | |
| FMNB | Farmers National Banc | 0.21 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.82 | (2.64) | 11.02 | |
| NRIM | Northrim BanCorp | (0.09) | 16 per month | 3.22 | 0 | 4.46 | (3.09) | 21.03 | |
| MSBI | Midland States Bancorp | (0.33) | 11 per month | 1.81 | 0.17 | 6.49 | (1.83) | 14.42 | |
| TCBX | Third Coast Bancshares | (0.47) | 10 per month | 1.47 | 0.01 | 3.27 | (2.53) | 9.59 | |
| BWB | Bridgewater Bancshares | (0.16) | 8 per month | 1.35 | 0.06 | 3.22 | (2.33) | 9.97 | |
| ACNB | ACNB Corporation | (0.94) | 9 per month | 1.22 | 0.07 | 2.50 | (2.28) | 7.30 | |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp | (0.21) | 9 per month | 1.29 | (0.01) | 2.67 | (2.02) | 8.39 | |
| PFIS | Peoples Fin | (0.05) | 8 per month | 1.55 | 0.04 | 3.04 | (2.33) | 8.79 | |
| ALRS | Alerus Financial Corp | 0.23 | 10 per month | 1.17 | 0.09 | 2.92 | (2.19) | 9.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bar Harbor
For every potential investor in Bar, whether a beginner or expert, Bar Harbor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bar Harbor's price trends.Bar Harbor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bar Harbor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bar Harbor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bar Harbor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bar Harbor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bar Harbor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bar Harbor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bar Harbor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bar Harbor Bankshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bar Harbor Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bar Harbor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bar Harbor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bar Harbor
The number of cover stories for Bar Harbor depends on current market conditions and Bar Harbor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bar Harbor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bar Harbor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bar Harbor to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bar Harbor. Projected growth potential of Bar fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Bar Harbor assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 1.26 | Earnings Share 2.31 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.289 |
The market value of Bar Harbor Bankshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bar Harbor's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bar Harbor's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bar Harbor's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bar Harbor's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Bar Harbor's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Bar Harbor should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Bar Harbor's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.