Biogen Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BIIB Stock | USD 174.12 2.53 1.47% |
Biogen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Biogen stock prices and determine the direction of Biogen Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Biogen's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The RSI of Biogen's share price is at 53 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Biogen, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.192 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.3789 | EPS Estimate Current Year 15.0166 | EPS Estimate Next Year 15.1066 | Wall Street Target Price 192.1379 |
Using Biogen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Biogen Inc from the perspective of Biogen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Biogen using Biogen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Biogen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Biogen's stock price.
Biogen Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Biogen's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Biogen. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Biogen stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 144.2061 | Short Percent 0.0393 | Short Ratio 1.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.6 M | 50 Day MA 174.8976 |
Biogen Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Biogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 174.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 151.44.Biogen Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Biogen's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Biogen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Biogen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Biogen Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Biogen's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Biogen.
Biogen Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
Biogen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Biogen Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Biogen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Biogen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Biogen's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Biogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 174.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 151.44. Biogen after-hype prediction price | USD 169.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Biogen to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Biogen contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Biogen Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Biogen trading at USD 174.12, that is roughly USD 0.0501 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Biogen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Biogen Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Biogen Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Biogen's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Biogen's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Biogen stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Biogen's open interest, investors have to compare it to Biogen's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Biogen is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Biogen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Biogen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Biogen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Biogen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Biogen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Biogen Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Biogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 174.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52, mean absolute percentage error of 11.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 151.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Biogen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Biogen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Biogen Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Biogen | Biogen Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Biogen Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Biogen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Biogen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 172.19 and 176.05, respectively. We have considered Biogen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Biogen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Biogen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6704 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4377 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.524 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 151.44 |
Predictive Modules for Biogen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Biogen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Biogen After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Biogen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Biogen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Biogen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Biogen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Biogen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Biogen's historical news coverage. Biogen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 167.51 and 188.75, respectively. We have considered Biogen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Biogen is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Biogen Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Biogen Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Biogen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Biogen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Biogen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 1.93 | 2.15 | 0.30 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
174.12 | 169.44 | 1.25 |
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Biogen Hype Timeline
Biogen Inc is currently traded for 174.12. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.3. Biogen is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 169.44. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 24.28%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.25%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Biogen is about 175.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 173.82. About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.38. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Biogen Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.98. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 3:1 split on the 18th of January 2001. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Biogen to cross-verify your projections.Biogen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Biogen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Biogen's future price movements. Getting to know how Biogen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Biogen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INCY | Incyte | (3.13) | 10 per month | 1.72 | 0.08 | 4.10 | (2.92) | 14.33 | |
| LH | Laboratory of | (1.75) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.71 | (2.34) | 6.20 | |
| GMAB | Genmab AS | 0.80 | 11 per month | 1.86 | 0.05 | 4.09 | (3.16) | 9.07 | |
| UTHR | United Therapeutics | (3.60) | 6 per month | 1.06 | 0.06 | 2.19 | (1.79) | 12.18 | |
| TEVA | Teva Pharma Industries | (0.44) | 10 per month | 0.28 | 0.26 | 3.59 | (1.61) | 23.46 | |
| DXCM | DexCom Inc | 4.23 | 11 per month | 3.33 | 0.01 | 3.31 | (2.87) | 16.00 | |
| STE | STERIS plc | (3.87) | 10 per month | 1.05 | 0.04 | 1.91 | (1.83) | 10.91 | |
| WAT | Waters | 0.65 | 9 per month | 0.89 | 0.06 | 3.35 | (1.83) | 8.38 | |
| PODD | Insulet | (4.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.24 | (3.62) | 13.53 | |
| DGX | Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.68 | (1.96) | 6.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Biogen
For every potential investor in Biogen, whether a beginner or expert, Biogen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Biogen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Biogen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Biogen's price trends.Biogen Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Biogen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Biogen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Biogen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Biogen Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Biogen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Biogen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Biogen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Biogen Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Biogen Risk Indicators
The analysis of Biogen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Biogen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting biogen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Variance | 3.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Biogen
The number of cover stories for Biogen depends on current market conditions and Biogen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Biogen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Biogen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Biogen Short Properties
Biogen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Biogen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Biogen Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Biogen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Biogen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 145.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.4 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Biogen to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Biogen. If investors know Biogen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Biogen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.192 | Earnings Share 10.98 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.028 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Biogen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Biogen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Biogen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Biogen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Biogen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Biogen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Biogen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Biogen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Biogen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.