Biogen Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BIIB Stock  USD 138.37  1.96  1.40%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Biogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 138.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.71. Biogen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Biogen stock prices and determine the direction of Biogen Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Biogen's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Biogen simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Biogen Inc are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Biogen Inc prices get older.

Biogen Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Biogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 138.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.91, mean absolute percentage error of 6.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Biogen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Biogen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Biogen Stock Forecast Pattern

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Biogen Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Biogen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Biogen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 136.64 and 140.10, respectively. We have considered Biogen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
138.37
136.64
Downside
138.37
Expected Value
140.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Biogen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Biogen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.109
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2425
MADMean absolute deviation1.9118
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0134
SAESum of the absolute errors114.71
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Biogen Inc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Biogen observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Biogen

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Biogen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
136.67138.40140.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
124.53167.77169.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
137.22140.17143.11
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Biogen

For every potential investor in Biogen, whether a beginner or expert, Biogen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Biogen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Biogen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Biogen's price trends.

Biogen Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Biogen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Biogen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Biogen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Biogen Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Biogen's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Biogen's current price.

Biogen Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Biogen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Biogen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Biogen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Biogen Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Biogen Risk Indicators

The analysis of Biogen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Biogen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting biogen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Biogen Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Biogen's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Biogen Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Biogen Inc Stock:
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Biogen. If investors know Biogen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Biogen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Biogen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Biogen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Biogen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Biogen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Biogen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Biogen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Biogen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Biogen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Biogen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.