Bausch Lomb Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BLCO Stock | USD 19.57 0.24 1.21% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bausch Lomb Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.19. Bausch Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Bausch Lomb's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bausch Lomb's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bausch Lomb fundamentals over time.
Bausch |
Bausch Lomb Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Bausch Lomb's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 331 M | Current Value 283.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 56.4 M |
Bausch Lomb Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bausch Lomb Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bausch Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bausch Lomb's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bausch Lomb Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bausch Lomb | Bausch Lomb Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bausch Lomb Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bausch Lomb's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bausch Lomb's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.44 and 21.81, respectively. We have considered Bausch Lomb's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bausch Lomb stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bausch Lomb stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4686 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5441 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0293 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.1882 |
Predictive Modules for Bausch Lomb
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bausch Lomb Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bausch Lomb's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bausch Lomb
For every potential investor in Bausch, whether a beginner or expert, Bausch Lomb's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bausch Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bausch. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bausch Lomb's price trends.Bausch Lomb Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bausch Lomb stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bausch Lomb could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bausch Lomb by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bausch Lomb Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bausch Lomb's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bausch Lomb's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Bausch Lomb Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bausch Lomb stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bausch Lomb shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bausch Lomb stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bausch Lomb Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7318.57 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.60) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.64 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.23) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.24) |
Bausch Lomb Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bausch Lomb's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bausch Lomb's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bausch stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Variance | 7.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Bausch Lomb
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bausch Lomb position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bausch Lomb will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Bausch Stock
| 0.86 | FORA | Forian Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | IVP | Inspire Veterinary | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | AMN | AMN Healthcare Services | PairCorr |
| 0.59 | AGL | agilon health | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | EVH | Evolent Health | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bausch Lomb could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bausch Lomb when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bausch Lomb - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bausch Lomb Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Bausch Lomb is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bausch Lomb moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bausch Lomb Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bausch Lomb can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bausch Lomb to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bausch Lomb. If investors know Bausch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bausch Lomb listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Earnings Share (1.04) | Revenue Per Share 13.327 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.188 | Return On Assets 0.0089 |
The market value of Bausch Lomb Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bausch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bausch Lomb's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bausch Lomb's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bausch Lomb's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bausch Lomb's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bausch Lomb's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bausch Lomb is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bausch Lomb's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.