Belite Bio Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BLTE Stock | USD 63.26 4.18 6.20% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Belite Bio ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 63.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.26. Belite Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Belite Bio stock prices and determine the direction of Belite Bio ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Belite Bio's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Belite |
Belite Bio Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Belite Bio ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 63.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59, mean absolute percentage error of 8.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Belite Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Belite Bio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Belite Bio Stock Forecast Pattern
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Belite Bio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Belite Bio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Belite Bio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.07 and 67.45, respectively. We have considered Belite Bio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Belite Bio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Belite Bio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.2539 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.237 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5944 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0244 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 97.26 |
Predictive Modules for Belite Bio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Belite Bio ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Belite Bio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Belite Bio
For every potential investor in Belite, whether a beginner or expert, Belite Bio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Belite Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Belite. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Belite Bio's price trends.View Belite Bio Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Belite Bio ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Belite Bio's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Belite Bio's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Belite Bio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Belite Bio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Belite Bio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Belite Bio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Belite Bio ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2316.97 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.79) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 65.91 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 65.03 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 2.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.74) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.18) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 77.34 |
Belite Bio Risk Indicators
The analysis of Belite Bio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Belite Bio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting belite stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.1 | |||
| Variance | 16.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.63 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Belite Bio ADR is a strong investment it is important to analyze Belite Bio's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Belite Bio's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Belite Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Belite Bio to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Belite Bio. If investors know Belite will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Belite Bio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.10) | Return On Assets (0.26) | Return On Equity (0.40) |
The market value of Belite Bio ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Belite that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Belite Bio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Belite Bio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Belite Bio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Belite Bio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Belite Bio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Belite Bio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Belite Bio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.