Bank of Montreal Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BMO Stock | USD 137.69 0.97 0.70% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank of Montreal on the next trading day is expected to be 140.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.58. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Bank of Montreal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bank of Montreal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bank of Montreal fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Bank of Montreal's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.011 | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.6336 | EPS Estimate Next Year 15.4551 | Wall Street Target Price 127.9072 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 3.0322 |
Using Bank of Montreal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bank of Montreal from the perspective of Bank of Montreal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Bank of Montreal using Bank of Montreal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Bank using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Bank of Montreal's stock price.
Bank of Montreal Short Interest
An investor who is long Bank of Montreal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Bank of Montreal and may potentially protect profits, hedge Bank of Montreal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 117.1371 | Short Percent 0.0033 | Short Ratio 6.48 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.7 M | 50 Day MA 128.9488 |
Bank of Montreal Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Bank of Montreal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bank. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bank can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bank of Montreal. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Bank of Montreal Implied Volatility | 0.3 |
Bank of Montreal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bank of Montreal stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bank of Montreal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bank of Montreal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bank of Montreal's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank of Montreal on the next trading day is expected to be 140.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.58. Bank of Montreal after-hype prediction price | USD 137.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of Montreal to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Bank contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Bank of Montreal will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0188% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Bank of Montreal trading at USD 137.69, that is roughly USD 0.0258 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Bank of Montreal's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Bank of Montreal options at the current volatility level of 0.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Bank Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bank of Montreal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bank of Montreal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bank of Montreal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bank of Montreal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bank of Montreal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bank of Montreal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bank. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Bank of Montreal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bank price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bank using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bank charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bank of Montreal Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Bank of Montreal's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1994-10-31 | Previous Quarter 62.8 B | Current Value 70.3 B | Quarterly Volatility 66.5 B |
Bank of Montreal Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank of Montreal on the next trading day is expected to be 140.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17, mean absolute percentage error of 2.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank of Montreal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bank of Montreal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bank of Montreal | Bank of Montreal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bank of Montreal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bank of Montreal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank of Montreal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 139.21 and 141.38, respectively. We have considered Bank of Montreal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank of Montreal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank of Montreal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.8237 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1734 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 71.5789 |
Predictive Modules for Bank of Montreal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank of Montreal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bank of Montreal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bank of Montreal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bank of Montreal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bank of Montreal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bank of Montreal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bank of Montreal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bank of Montreal's historical news coverage. Bank of Montreal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 136.56 and 138.72, respectively. We have considered Bank of Montreal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bank of Montreal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bank of Montreal is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bank of Montreal Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bank of Montreal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bank of Montreal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bank of Montreal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.08 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
137.69 | 137.64 | 0.04 |
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Bank of Montreal Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Bank of Montreal is traded for 137.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Bank is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 137.64. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Bank of Montreal is about 409.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 137.65. About 56.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.57. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Bank of Montreal has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.48. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.21. The firm last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. Bank of Montreal had 2:1 split on the 15th of March 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of Montreal to cross-verify your projections.Bank of Montreal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bank of Montreal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bank of Montreal's future price movements. Getting to know how Bank of Montreal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bank of Montreal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BNS | Bank of Nova | (1.46) | 10 per month | 0.72 | 0.19 | 1.65 | (1.04) | 6.23 | |
| CM | Canadian Imperial Bank | 0.94 | 10 per month | 0.87 | 0.14 | 1.42 | (1.62) | 6.42 | |
| MFG | Mizuho Financial Group | (0.05) | 2 per month | 1.15 | 0.23 | 2.99 | (2.03) | 7.66 | |
| ING | ING Group NV | 0.14 | 5 per month | 1.09 | 0.15 | 2.58 | (2.00) | 8.20 | |
| BCS | Barclays PLC ADR | (0.46) | 28 per month | 1.07 | 0.21 | 2.36 | (2.06) | 5.24 | |
| MMC | MMC Old | 0.14 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.97 | (1.64) | 9.33 | |
| NU | Nu Holdings | (0.14) | 8 per month | 1.61 | 0.09 | 4.33 | (2.70) | 10.26 | |
| UBS | UBS Group AG | 0.03 | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.18 | 2.57 | (1.92) | 6.86 | |
| SMFG | Sumitomo Mitsui Financial | (0.05) | 6 per month | 0.96 | 0.23 | 2.99 | (1.92) | 8.31 | |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | (1.73) | 5 per month | 1.38 | (0.03) | 2.15 | (1.95) | 8.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bank of Montreal
For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank of Montreal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank of Montreal's price trends.Bank of Montreal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank of Montreal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank of Montreal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank of Montreal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bank of Montreal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank of Montreal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank of Montreal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank of Montreal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank of Montreal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 8673.01 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.36) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 137.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 137.63 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.39) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.97) |
Bank of Montreal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bank of Montreal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank of Montreal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8233 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9482 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Variance | 1.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8992 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bank of Montreal
The number of cover stories for Bank of Montreal depends on current market conditions and Bank of Montreal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bank of Montreal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bank of Montreal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bank of Montreal Short Properties
Bank of Montreal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bank of Montreal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bank of Montreal often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bank of Montreal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bank of Montreal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 723.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 104.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of Montreal to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Bank Stock, please use our How to Invest in Bank of Montreal guide.You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bank of Montreal. If investors know Bank will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bank of Montreal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.011 | Dividend Share 6.44 | Earnings Share 8.21 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.155 |
The market value of Bank of Montreal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bank that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bank of Montreal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bank of Montreal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bank of Montreal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bank of Montreal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bank of Montreal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bank of Montreal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bank of Montreal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.