Barnes Noble Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| BNED Stock | USD 8.94 0.21 2.30% |
Barnes Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Barnes Noble stock prices and determine the direction of Barnes Noble Education's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Barnes Noble's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of Barnes Noble's share price is approaching 49 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Barnes Noble, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.084 | Wall Street Target Price 0.75 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.021 |
Using Barnes Noble hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Barnes Noble Education from the perspective of Barnes Noble response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Barnes Noble using Barnes Noble's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Barnes using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Barnes Noble's stock price.
Barnes Noble Implied Volatility | 1.64 |
Barnes Noble's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Barnes Noble Education stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Barnes Noble's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Barnes Noble stock will not fluctuate a lot when Barnes Noble's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Barnes Noble Education on the next trading day is expected to be 8.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.78. Barnes Noble after-hype prediction price | USD 8.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barnes Noble to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Barnes contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Barnes Noble Education will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.1% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Barnes Noble trading at USD 8.94, that is roughly USD 0.009163 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Barnes Noble's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Barnes Noble Education options at the current volatility level of 1.64%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Barnes Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Barnes Noble's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Barnes Noble's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Barnes Noble stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Barnes Noble's open interest, investors have to compare it to Barnes Noble's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Barnes Noble is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Barnes. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Barnes Noble Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Barnes price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Barnes using various technical indicators. When you analyze Barnes charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Barnes Noble Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Barnes Noble Education on the next trading day is expected to be 8.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Barnes Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Barnes Noble's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Barnes Noble Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Barnes Noble | Barnes Noble Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Barnes Noble Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Barnes Noble's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Barnes Noble's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.15 and 14.73, respectively. We have considered Barnes Noble's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Barnes Noble stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Barnes Noble stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8841 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.005 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.313 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.037 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.78 |
Predictive Modules for Barnes Noble
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Barnes Noble Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Barnes Noble's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Barnes Noble After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Barnes Noble at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Barnes Noble or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Barnes Noble, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Barnes Noble Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Barnes Noble's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Barnes Noble's historical news coverage. Barnes Noble's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.19 and 14.69, respectively. We have considered Barnes Noble's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Barnes Noble is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Barnes Noble Education is based on 3 months time horizon.
Barnes Noble Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Barnes Noble is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Barnes Noble backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Barnes Noble, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 5.79 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.94 | 8.94 | 0.00 |
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Barnes Noble Hype Timeline
Barnes Noble Education is currently traded for 8.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Barnes is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Barnes Noble is about 4288.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.92. About 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Barnes Noble Education has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.1. The entity recorded a loss per share of 12.1. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Barnes Noble had 1:100 split on the 12th of June 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barnes Noble to cross-verify your projections.Barnes Noble Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Barnes Noble's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Barnes Noble's future price movements. Getting to know how Barnes Noble's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Barnes Noble may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CHPT | ChargePoint Holdings | 0.20 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.83 | (6.84) | 31.33 | |
| FLWS | 1 800 FLOWERSCOM | 0.31 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 7.67 | (7.97) | 43.73 | |
| CTRN | Citi Trends | (0.05) | 9 per month | 2.57 | 0.07 | 4.68 | (4.27) | 15.07 | |
| GCO | Genesco | (0.27) | 11 per month | 5.85 | 0.04 | 8.14 | (4.04) | 39.13 | |
| EMPD | Empery Digital | (0.27) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.81 | (9.18) | 20.53 | |
| LOCO | El Pollo Loco | 0.13 | 12 per month | 1.88 | 0.05 | 3.20 | (2.74) | 16.59 | |
| JACK | Jack In The | (0.26) | 11 per month | 3.93 | 0.07 | 8.01 | (7.01) | 22.15 | |
| HNST | Honest Company | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 5.62 | (3.89) | 32.21 | |
| HLLY | Holley Inc | (1.15) | 14 per month | 1.88 | 0.11 | 5.51 | (3.70) | 38.65 | |
| BARK | BARK Inc | (0.01) | 11 per month | 3.02 | 0.02 | 10.61 | (5.71) | 29.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Barnes Noble
For every potential investor in Barnes, whether a beginner or expert, Barnes Noble's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Barnes Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Barnes. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Barnes Noble's price trends.Barnes Noble Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Barnes Noble stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Barnes Noble could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Barnes Noble by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Barnes Noble Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Barnes Noble stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Barnes Noble shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Barnes Noble stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Barnes Noble Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Barnes Noble Risk Indicators
The analysis of Barnes Noble's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Barnes Noble's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting barnes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.55 | |||
| Variance | 30.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Barnes Noble
The number of cover stories for Barnes Noble depends on current market conditions and Barnes Noble's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Barnes Noble is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Barnes Noble's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barnes Noble to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Barnes Noble. If investors know Barnes will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Barnes Noble listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.084 | Earnings Share (12.10) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.021 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Barnes Noble Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Barnes that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Barnes Noble's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Barnes Noble's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Barnes Noble's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Barnes Noble's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Barnes Noble's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Barnes Noble is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Barnes Noble's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.