Bowhead Specialty Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

BOW Stock   24.49  1.17  4.56%   
Bowhead Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Bowhead Specialty's share price is approaching 44 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bowhead Specialty, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 44

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Bowhead Specialty's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Bowhead Specialty and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Bowhead Specialty's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bowhead Specialty Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Bowhead Specialty's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.25
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.4588
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.6334
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.9649
Wall Street Target Price
34.2857
Using Bowhead Specialty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bowhead Specialty Holdings from the perspective of Bowhead Specialty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Bowhead Relative Strength Index

The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bowhead Specialty Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 26.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.22.

Bowhead Specialty Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Bowhead Specialty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bowhead. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bowhead can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bowhead Specialty Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Bowhead Specialty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Bowhead Specialty.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bowhead Specialty Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 26.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.22.

Bowhead Specialty after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 24.49  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bowhead Specialty to cross-verify your projections.

Bowhead Specialty Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Bowhead price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bowhead using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bowhead charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Bowhead Specialty price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Bowhead Specialty Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Bowhead Specialty Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 26.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26, mean absolute percentage error of 2.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bowhead Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bowhead Specialty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bowhead Specialty Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bowhead Specialty  Bowhead Specialty Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Bowhead Specialty Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bowhead Specialty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bowhead Specialty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.86 and 28.71, respectively. We have considered Bowhead Specialty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.49
26.28
Expected Value
28.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bowhead Specialty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bowhead Specialty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.7012
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2616
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0478
SAESum of the absolute errors78.2168
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Bowhead Specialty Holdings historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Bowhead Specialty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bowhead Specialty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
22.0924.4926.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.0321.4326.94
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
22.9326.3229.70
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
31.2034.2938.06
Details

Bowhead Specialty After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Bowhead Specialty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bowhead Specialty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bowhead Specialty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Bowhead Specialty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Bowhead Specialty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bowhead Specialty's historical news coverage. Bowhead Specialty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.09 and 26.89, respectively. We have considered Bowhead Specialty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
24.49
24.49
After-hype Price
26.89
Upside
Bowhead Specialty is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bowhead Specialty is based on 3 months time horizon.

Bowhead Specialty Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bowhead Specialty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bowhead Specialty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bowhead Specialty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05 
2.42
  0.05 
  0.05 
9 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
24.49
24.49
0.00 
257.45  
Notes

Bowhead Specialty Hype Timeline

On the 28th of January Bowhead Specialty is traded for 24.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Bowhead is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bowhead Specialty is about 262.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.54. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.95. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Bowhead Specialty had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bowhead Specialty to cross-verify your projections.

Bowhead Specialty Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Bowhead Specialty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bowhead Specialty's future price movements. Getting to know how Bowhead Specialty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bowhead Specialty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
UFCSUnited Fire Group(0.03)11 per month 1.10  0.06  2.14 (2.09) 17.21 
ASICAtegrity Specialty Insurance 0.07 12 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.17 (3.44) 8.64 
HRTGHeritage Insurance Hldgs(0.43)6 per month 2.90  0.03  4.24 (4.89) 19.93 
UVEUniversal Insurance Holdings(0.06)9 per month 1.96 (0) 3.79 (3.08) 18.12 
ESQEsquire Financial Holdings(13.53)9 per month 1.57  0.03  2.69 (2.65) 7.20 
EIGEmployers Holdings(0.28)5 per month 1.74 (0.01) 2.14 (2.15) 7.46 
AMSFAMERISAFE 1.64 9 per month 0.00 (0.21) 1.47 (2.16) 6.71 
DGICADonegal Group A 1.60 12 per month 0.00 (0.11) 1.99 (2.52) 5.10 
HAFCHanmi Financial 10.12 28 per month 0.96  0.1  3.23 (1.92) 12.14 
CFFNCapitol Federal Financial 10.12 21 per month 1.44  0.05  2.80 (2.44) 8.42 

Other Forecasting Options for Bowhead Specialty

For every potential investor in Bowhead, whether a beginner or expert, Bowhead Specialty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bowhead Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bowhead. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bowhead Specialty's price trends.

Bowhead Specialty Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bowhead Specialty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bowhead Specialty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bowhead Specialty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bowhead Specialty Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bowhead Specialty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bowhead Specialty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bowhead Specialty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bowhead Specialty Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bowhead Specialty Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bowhead Specialty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bowhead Specialty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bowhead stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Bowhead Specialty

The number of cover stories for Bowhead Specialty depends on current market conditions and Bowhead Specialty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bowhead Specialty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bowhead Specialty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Bowhead Specialty Short Properties

Bowhead Specialty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bowhead Specialty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bowhead Specialty Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bowhead Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bowhead Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding29.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments987.5 M

Additional Tools for Bowhead Stock Analysis

When running Bowhead Specialty's price analysis, check to measure Bowhead Specialty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bowhead Specialty is operating at the current time. Most of Bowhead Specialty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bowhead Specialty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bowhead Specialty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bowhead Specialty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.