United Fire Group Stock Price Prediction
| UFCS Stock | USD 25.25 0.05 0.20% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
41
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.04 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.48 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.84 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.2 | Wall Street Target Price 26 |
Using United Fire hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United Fire Group from the perspective of United Fire response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards United Fire using United Fire's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards United using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of United Fire's stock price.
United Fire Implied Volatility | 0.96 |
United Fire's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Fire Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Fire's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Fire stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Fire's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in United Fire to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying United because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
United Fire after-hype prediction price | USD 24.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current United contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that United Fire Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.06% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With United Fire trading at USD 25.25, that is roughly USD 0.0151 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating United Fire's daily price movement you should consider acquiring United Fire Group options at the current volatility level of 0.96%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
United |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Fire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United Fire After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of United Fire at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United Fire or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of United Fire, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
United Fire Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting United Fire's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United Fire's historical news coverage. United Fire's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.97 and 28.77, respectively. We have considered United Fire's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
United Fire is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Fire Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
United Fire Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as United Fire is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Fire backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United Fire, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 3.90 | 0.38 | 0.10 | 8 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
25.25 | 24.87 | 1.50 |
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United Fire Hype Timeline
United Fire Group is at this time traded for 25.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.38, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. United is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 24.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.5%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on United Fire is about 2130.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.15. About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.81. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. United Fire Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.9. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of November 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 16th of December 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out United Fire Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.United Fire Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to United Fire's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United Fire's future price movements. Getting to know how United Fire's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United Fire may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DGICB | Donegal Group B | (0.50) | 9 per month | 2.65 | 0.02 | 5.84 | (5.44) | 15.24 | |
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators | (0.11) | 11 per month | 1.54 | (0.01) | 2.10 | (2.92) | 11.77 | |
| DGICA | Donegal Group A | (0.28) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.67 | (2.11) | 5.28 | |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity PLC | 0.24 | 5 per month | 1.29 | (0.03) | 2.41 | (2.27) | 8.42 | |
| NODK | NI Holdings | 0.35 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.15 | (2.23) | 7.59 | |
| SIGIP | Selective Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.83 | (1.68) | 4.71 | |
| WRB | W R Berkley | 0.22 | 10 per month | 1.22 | (0.06) | 2.25 | (1.73) | 7.82 | |
| SKWD | Skyward Specialty Insurance | (1.86) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.70 | (4.36) | 12.91 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | (0.22) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.82 | (2.45) | 12.73 | |
| MKL | Markel | (0.56) | 10 per month | 0.72 | 0.11 | 1.84 | (1.80) | 8.23 | |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | 0.56 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.03 | (2.27) | 10.05 | |
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial | (1.85) | 10 per month | 1.48 | (0.04) | 2.29 | (2.49) | 10.96 | |
| SAFT | Safety Insurance Group | 1.63 | 4 per month | 1.35 | (0.05) | 1.58 | (2.30) | 13.97 |
United Fire Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About United Fire Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of United Fire stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as United Fire Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of United Fire based on analysis of United Fire hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to United Fire's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to United Fire's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.023 | 0.0319 | 0.0287 | 0.0214 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.7 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.72 |
Story Coverage note for United Fire
The number of cover stories for United Fire depends on current market conditions and United Fire's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that United Fire is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about United Fire's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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United Fire Short Properties
United Fire's future price predictability will typically decrease when United Fire's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of United Fire Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential United Fire's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Fire's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 102.1 M |
Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
When running United Fire's price analysis, check to measure United Fire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Fire is operating at the current time. Most of United Fire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Fire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Fire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Fire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.