Barnwell Industries Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BRN Stock | USD 1.14 0.03 2.56% |
Barnwell Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Barnwell Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Barnwell Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Barnwell Industries fundamentals over time.
As of today, the value of relative strength index of Barnwell Industries' share price is approaching 48 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Barnwell Industries, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.29) |
Using Barnwell Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Barnwell Industries from the perspective of Barnwell Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Barnwell Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 1.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.85. Barnwell Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 1.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barnwell Industries to cross-verify your projections. Barnwell Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Barnwell price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Barnwell using various technical indicators. When you analyze Barnwell charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Barnwell Industries Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Barnwell Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 1.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Barnwell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Barnwell Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Barnwell Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Barnwell Industries | Barnwell Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Barnwell Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Barnwell Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Barnwell Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.97, respectively. We have considered Barnwell Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Barnwell Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Barnwell Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.8775 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0045 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0308 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0269 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.85 |
Predictive Modules for Barnwell Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Barnwell Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Barnwell Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Barnwell Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Barnwell Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Barnwell Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Barnwell Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Barnwell Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Barnwell Industries' historical news coverage. Barnwell Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 5.06, respectively. We have considered Barnwell Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Barnwell Industries is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Barnwell Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Barnwell Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Barnwell Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Barnwell Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Barnwell Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 3.83 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.14 | 1.14 | 0.00 |
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Barnwell Industries Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Barnwell Industries is traded for 1.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Barnwell is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Barnwell Industries is about 54714.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.14. About 66.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Barnwell Industries was currently reported as 0.85. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.76. Barnwell Industries last dividend was issued on the 23rd of August 2023. The entity had 3:1 split on the 15th of November 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barnwell Industries to cross-verify your projections.Barnwell Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Barnwell Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Barnwell Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Barnwell Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Barnwell Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BANL | CBL International Limited | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 4.65 | (5.71) | 23.38 | |
| VIVK | Vivakor | (0.13) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 16.00 | (21.98) | 112.20 | |
| TPET | Trio Petroleum Corp | 0.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.32 | (6.80) | 32.43 | |
| SKYQ | Sky Quarry | (0.05) | 10 per month | 8.72 | 0.04 | 17.65 | (14.29) | 125.89 | |
| BATL | Battalion Oil Corp | 0.09 | 5 per month | 3.11 | 0.12 | 8.18 | (6.98) | 228.01 | |
| TMDE | TMD Energy Limited | 0.03 | 9 per month | 6.34 | 0.04 | 8.00 | (10.87) | 160.91 | |
| STAK | STAK Ordinary Shares | (0.02) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 10.00 | (9.30) | 30.59 | |
| PTLE | PTL LTD Ordinary | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 18.18 | (13.64) | 62.75 | |
| MXC | Mexco Energy | 0.10 | 8 per month | 3.47 | 0.07 | 7.03 | (7.22) | 16.16 | |
| EONR | EON Resources | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.09 | (7.27) | 22.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Barnwell Industries
For every potential investor in Barnwell, whether a beginner or expert, Barnwell Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Barnwell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Barnwell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Barnwell Industries' price trends.Barnwell Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Barnwell Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Barnwell Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Barnwell Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Barnwell Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Barnwell Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Barnwell Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Barnwell Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Barnwell Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.14 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.14 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.62 |
Barnwell Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Barnwell Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Barnwell Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting barnwell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.97 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.92 | |||
| Variance | 15.37 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Barnwell Industries
The number of cover stories for Barnwell Industries depends on current market conditions and Barnwell Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Barnwell Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Barnwell Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Barnwell Industries Short Properties
Barnwell Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Barnwell Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Barnwell Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Barnwell Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Barnwell Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barnwell Industries to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Barnwell Stock, please use our How to Invest in Barnwell Industries guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could Barnwell diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Barnwell Industries. Projected growth potential of Barnwell fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Barnwell Industries data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Earnings Share (0.76) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.29) | Return On Assets |
Understanding Barnwell Industries requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Barnwell's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Barnwell Industries' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Barnwell Industries' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Barnwell Industries' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Barnwell Industries should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Barnwell Industries' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.